Dallas Mavericks: 3 bold predictions for 2018-19 NBA season

3. Mavericks are a top-10 offense

Generally speaking, any Rick Carlisle-led team has been feared on the offensive end of the floor. However, this hasn’t proven to be the case in recent times, with last season’s Mavericks finishing 23rd in offensive rating and 28th in points per game.

Having said that, their 104.1 offensive rating last season was not too dissimilar to the last time they made the playoffs in 2015-16, when they registered a 104.8 rating. However, this goes to show just how far the league has evolved in the past couple of years. Whereas their rating two years ago ranked 10th in the league, this past season, the Mavericks would’ve ranked 20th with the same return.

The last time the Mavericks returned a truly elite offense was during the 2013-14 season, with their 109.0 rating ranking third in the league. That season, Dirk Nowitzki led the team with 21.7 points per game, with Monta Ellis second at 19.0 per game. The next three on the scoring list were Vince Carter (11.9), Jose Calderon (11.4) and Shawn Marion (10.4.) There’s no reason the current crop of Mavericks can’t match this output.

Entering the new season, Nowitzki is expected to come of the bench, clearly signaling a change from the coaching staff, with the 40-year-old having started in all but 31 of his 1,471 career games.

With the injection of DeAndre Jordan in the middle, and Luka Doncic as somewhat of a point forward, the Mavericks figure to have one of the more intriguing lineups. In particular, the dynamic between Doncic and second-year point guard Dennis Smith Jr. is going to be crucial.

With Smith leading the team comfortably last season with 12.7 drives per game, the injection of Doncic into the mix is certain to add another wrinkle to the Mavs’ offense. Last season, 6’0″ backup point guard J.J. Barea ranked second on the team in drives. Substituting Barea’s forays with the 6’8″ Doncic can only help create a number of different options for the Mavericks, with his size and length incomparable to the diminutive Barea.

Then there’s forward Harrison Barnes, who at 26 is just about to enter his prime, having led the team in scoring the past two seasons. With Nowitzki moving to a bench role., this could potentially open things up even for the former North Carolina star, especially considering the presence of an additional playmaker in Doncic.

Furthermore, veteran shooting guard Wesley Matthews is entering the final year of his contract, and thus will be incredibly determined at age 31 to perform at a level enabling him to secure another lucrative deal.

While jumping from 20th to 10th in offensive efficiency would be incredible, it’s certainly not an unprecedented feat. Just last season, the Philadelphia 76ers jumped from 30th to 11th in offensive rating, with an injection of significant talent the clear catalyst for such a rise.

So with the Mavericks adding some outstanding talent of their own, and the overall prowess of coach Carlisle, this rise is certainly not out of the question.