1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Though team success factors in heavily in MVP voting, Russell Westbrook’s 2017 award may have put a crack in the barrier that’s been up since 1983, when Moses Malone had been the last MVP winner to play for a team that didn’t finish with a top-three record in his respective conference.
Last year, though the best player on the league’s best team technically won, Anthony Davis finished third on the MVP ballot despite playing for a 48-win New Orleans Pelicans team that was the 6-seed in the West. LeBron James finished second, despite his Cavs finishing as the 4-seed in the East. Is it any wonder AD has the second-best odds to win MVP after what he accomplished last year?
Odds to win NBA MVP (@BovadaOfficial):
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) August 15, 2018
LeBron +333
Davis +400
Antetokounmpo +450
Harden +550
KD +900
Kawhi +1100
Westbrook +1400
Curry +1500
Embiid/Irving +1600
Simmons +3500
Lillard +4500
Towns +5000
Wall/DeRozan +8000
Mitchell +8500
Jokic/Oladipo/Paul +10000
Ball +45000
Averaging 28.1 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.6 blocks, 2.3 assists and 1.5 steals per game, Davis was a two-way terror all year, but he really morphed into a destroyer of all worlds once DeMarcus Cousins went down and he shifted over to his true position at the 5. From that point on, he averaged 30.2 points, 11.9 rebounds, 3.2 blocks, 2.2 assists and 2.0 steals per game.
Can he keep up that kind of production for a full season? It’s difficult to say, but if Alvin Gentry deploys his superstar at center and keeps stretch-4 Nikola Mirotic alongside him, the Brow will have to be considered the odds-on MVP favorite. The only things holding his case back would be team success and the propensity for injury.
While AD has played 75 games in each of the last two seasons, playing center full-time will take a new toll on his body. The Pelicans would also have to cross the 50-game threshold and secure a top-four seed in the West. The Utah Jazz seem most likely to earn the 3-seed, but there’s no question that vacancy is up for grabs with regression likely coming for the Portland Trail Blazers.
After finishing third in MVP voting and second in Defensive Player of the Year voting, a full season of Anthony Davis at center might unlock something terrifying to behold in 2018-19. If the questions at point guard don’t result in too many losses, the Pelicans should be successful enough for Anthony Davis to finally win his first MVP award, especially if he can touch up that 3-point efficiency.