Every August, the NBA schedule and each team’s projected win total are released. Unfortunately for the Washington Wizards, their 2018-19 win total indicates regression.
The 2018-19 Washington Wizards are projected to win 44.5 games according to Odds Shark, placing them towards the bottom of the playoff standings as the sixth-best team in the Eastern Conference.
Given the circumstances, Wizards fans should feel pretty confused by the subpar outlook.
As a reference, here are the projected 2018-19 Eastern Conference playoff teams based on win totals:
- Boston Celtics – 58 wins
- Toronto Raptors – 54.5 wins
- Philadelphia 76ers – 54.5 wins
- Indiana Pacers – 47 wins
- Milwaukee Bucks – 46.5 wins
- Washington Wizards – 44.5 wins
- Miami Heat – 41 wins
- Detroit Pistons – 37.5 wins
If you’re scoring at home, that means in a top-heavy Eastern Conference with a majority of the teams engaged in a tanking war rivaling the Battle of the Bulge, the Wizards’ win total of 44.5 is disconcerting.
This is especially true since the Wizards are only two years removed from winning 49 games, earning the 4-seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and have a slightly better supporting cast along with a healthy starting roster coming back to face worse competition.
So why the low total?
In order to figure that out, let’s take a look at what 44.5 wins actually means in the Eastern Conference.
First the bad news. If the Wizards finish as projected, the average win total from the previous five 6-seeds in the east has been right at 44 wins. Factor in the Wizards have averaged exactly 44.5 wins during the same time span and the low projection seems accurate.
However, there is some good news. If the Wizards outperform their projected win total, then pencil them in as the 5-seed or better since each team finishing in that position has averaged 46 wins or more over the same five years.
All of this boils the conversation down to one simple question: Are the Washington Wizards good enough to finish the 2018-19 season as the 5-seed or better in the Eastern Conference?
The answer, of course, is it depends.
Scheduling plays a huge factor on how a team fares over the course of a season. Right off the bat, Washington’s biggest argument for winning more than 44.5 games is simple: They get to play 16 games against the NBA’s Southeastern Division, which is quite possibly the worst division in all of professional sports.
Nothing pads a record more than routinely facing inferior competition. By the way, inferior may be generous when describing the current versions of the Miami Heat, Charlotte Hornets, Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks, who comprise 20 percent of the Wizards’ schedule in addition to other routine matchups against the New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, Detroit Pistons and Chicago Bulls.
If anything, the Wizards eclipsing 44.5 wins is a more of a referendum against the Eastern Conference.
With their schedule in mind, the Wizards could lose one game to each team in the Southeast Division, finish with a .500 record against the rest of the field and still finish the season with 45 wins. Since the Wizards won 49 games in 2016-17 against better competition, the prospect of winning more than 44.5 games now seems more likely.
Another factor is the whether or not the Wizards are indeed the sixth-best team in the Eastern Conference. For brevity’s sake, the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers are better than the Wizards; however, the argument for the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers also being better is much more debatable and harder to predict, meaning the the odds of them finishing fourth are just as good.
At the end of the day, the Wizards are probably closer to their 49-win finish in 2016-17 than their 43 wins last season, which can be chalked up to John Wall missing half the season due to injury. They also face an easier schedule and have a better bench than years prior.
Gut instinct, take the over.
Projected wins: 46 and the Wizards finish as the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference behind the Pacers.