In last year’s “Golden State Warriors challengers” series, we focused on six teams that posed a threat. In this year’s final installment, we expand our scope.
The odds are that the Golden State Warriors will win their fourth championship in five years. The veracity of that statement is backed by its own contents; they have won 75 percent of the time in recent years. While there can be noise in such a small sample, they were much closer to 100 percent than 50.
Vegas would agree. The Warriors are currently -195 to win the 2018-19 title, according to Odds Shark. Next are the Boston Celtics (+500), followed by the Houston Rockets (+850), Los Angeles Lakers (+1000), Toronto Raptors (+1400) and Philadelphia 76ers (+1600).
I did not reference these odds to decide on the five teams I broke down in Parts I, II, III, IV and V, but it’s also far from a crazy coincidence that my selections aligned with Vegas’. There is a power gap after these five teams, almost as large as that between that group and the Warriors. This is why I was unable to choose a sixth challenger. It felt dishonest.
Bookies agree about the size of that gap. The next-highest title odds belong to the Oklahoma City Thunder, at +3000. There is another gap here, with the Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs coming in next at +7500 and +8000, respectively.
This is where my opinion diverges. I’ll get into why as I run through the remaining Warriors challengers.
Utah Jazz
Fun fact: The Jazz are the only team to beat the Warriors three times in a season since doing so became a noteworthy accomplishment. Utah’s +14.6 net rating over Golden State in 2017-18 was also the highest during the Steve Kerr era.
That number includes a 25-point blowout loss in December.
The Jazz were struggling at that time. Rudy Gobert was sidelined, and Donovan Mitchell had yet to level up. After Gobert returned, Utah obliterated the Warriors three straight times, holding them to a 91.0 offensive rating and dropping 119.8 points per 100 possessions on the defending champs.
Stephen Curry did miss two of those games. Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green were all absent for one. And when they did return for a 119-79 shellacking in Utah on April 3, their hearts were clearly not in it.
None of that changes this: The Jazz are a bad matchup for Golden State. They do not turn the ball over, do not get confused on rotations and force a ton of confusion-inducing rotations of their own. They have a legitimate bully-ball frontcourt, depth to punish Golden State’s sub-optimal lineups and a dynamic lead guard who plays both ends and cannot be neutralized by taking one thing away (see: Westbrook, Russell).
Will they beat the Warriors in a playoff series? Not as things currently stand, but they will make Golden State earn everything. Mix in some injury luck, Mitchell and Gobert leaps and a deadline move, and things could get interesting.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Did I overestimate this team when I dubbed them a “lock” to win more than 51.5 games last year on both my podcast and my legitimate online gambling account? We don’t need to get into that.
My misguided OKC optimism should not cloud the upside that this team has, though. Sure, the Thunder had problems that went far beyond Carmelo Anthony last season, from chemistry to a lack of shooting to health to Westbrook being Westbrook.
Still, OKC went 2-2 against the Warriors last year, and blew them out by 20 at Oracle in a game that Melo left midway through the first quarter. His absence unlocked dynamite defensive lineups featuring Jerami Grant, Josh Huestis and Patrick Patterson occupying the forward spots alongside Westbrook and Paul George. The overwhelming length allowed OKC to get out in transition, where the two superstars were able to more than carry the offense.
It is not outlandish to anticipate this style leading the Thunder into the 56-58 win range, being a top-three defense and giving Golden State a tough series.
The problem is the upside. While OKC is more likely to hang with the Warriors than the following two teams, it’s harder to envision a path to actual victory.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks — in all their poorly-coached, dysfunctional glory — have given Golden State serious problems at times. The main reason? Insane length, athleticism, aggressiveness and Giannis Antentokounmpo.
Now, imagine all of this being harnessed not by Jason Kidd or Joe Prunty, but by Mike Budenholzer.
It’s possible that, in improving the Bucks on a day-to-day basis, Bud also removes the ceiling variance that has allowed them to beat Golden State twice in the last three seasons. It’s also possible that he finds a way to leverage his team’s strengths without exposing their weaknesses, so that those two wins don’t have to come along with four losses.
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Just look at this team on paper: Giannis. Khris Middleton. Eric Bledsoe. Tony Snell. Malcolm Brogdon. Matthew Dellavedova. Thon Maker. Ersan Ilyasova. That might not be the shiniest talent collection in the league, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find one as loaded with guys who can stay on the floor against Golden State.
Now, think about Bud: A coach who has gotten fantastic ball movement and floor-spacing out of a team whose best shot creator was Jeff Teague. Now he has one of the league’s most unstoppable offensive forces in Giannis, followed by two guys in Middleton and Bledsoe that can do more both on the ball or away from it than Teague. Also think about the defense Bud was able to conjure with Teague and Kyle Korver on the floor, and consider that the worst defender he will be obligated to play now is Brogdon or Ilyasova.
Finally, imagine Giannis taking another leap — you know, like he has every year he’s been in the league. Suddenly, the Bucks become real Finals contenders, and real threats to Golden State should they get there.
Unlikely? Of course. This is a best-case, 100 percent outcome. But when talking about Warriors challengers, ceiling will always wipe the floor with floor.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Warriors were lucky to avoid the Wolves in the first round last season. Karl-Anthony Towns is perhaps the toughest post player in the league for Draymond Green to check one-on-one, and the guy that gives Golden State the fewest alternative options.
Put a bigger body on him, and he pulls that guy out to 3, attacks off the dribble, opens up the glass for Taj Gibson and opens up driving and cutting lanes for Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins and Teague. Bringing a double solves the shooting issue, but Towns is adept at sensing pressure, and this creates even bigger holes elsewhere.
This is where you’re probably asking: “So you’re saying that KAT, a non-top-10 player and an atrocious defender, is really a guy who threatens Golden State?”
To which I answer: Yes, if he can become that kind of player this season.
The problems he causes for the Warriors’ defense are real. He caused it for the entire league last year; Minnesota was No. 4 in offense and Towns made them 10.5 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court. If he can become an impact defender (which he has the tools for) and be better utilized offensively (which would simply take a midseason coaching change), he will be as tough a player for Golden State to account for as there is in the NBA.
If Jimmy Butler stays healthy, Andrew Wiggins starts giving a crap on defense and Tom Thibodeau (or, again, a new coach/GM) surrounds this super trio with the right players (by either playing Anthony Tolliver, Keita Bates-Diop and Josh Okogie or by making a midseason trade or two), this team has more potential to be devastating than any outside of the five major challengers — and maybe more than some in that group, too.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com