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Washington Wizards: Best candidates for 2018-19 NBA awards

By Matt H

NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 29: Marcin Gortat #13 of the Washington Wizards, John Wall #2, Markieff Morris #5, Otto Porter Jr. #22 and Bradley Beal #3 talk during the second half of a game against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center on January 29, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 29: Marcin Gortat #13 of the Washington Wizards, John Wall #2, Markieff Morris #5, Otto Porter Jr. #22 and Bradley Beal #3 talk during the second half of a game against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center on January 29, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) /
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Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images /

MVP: John Wall

The Wizards’ success starts and ends with the performance of John Wall. At his current peak, he led Washington to 49 wins and an All-NBA Third Team selection when he averaged 23.1 points and 10.7 assists per game with a Player Efficiency Rating of 23.2.

That same season, Russell Westbrook took home the MVP hardware, posting 31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds and 10.6 assists per game for a 30.6 PER during his quest to average a triple-double for the season. With that precedent, it would seem Wall could never win the MVP.

However, to his own detriment, Westbrook’s insistence on doing everything for the Oklahoma City Thunder that season, outside of landing the team airplane, came at the cost of his ridiculous 41.7 Usage Rate and leaving the rest of the Thunder to stand around listlessly as the Houston Rockets torched them in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.

The lesson? The MVP can be stolen by any elite player who decides to hog the ball in order to put up numbers.  Just to put it into perspective, LeBron James never eclipsed the 33.5 Usage Rating he averaged on the 2007-08 Cleveland Cavaliers team. Can you imagine the numbers he would reach with a  41.7 Usage Rate?

So putting Westbrook’s numbers aside, what’s a better comparison for John Wall’s likelihood to win the 2018-19 NBA MVP?

Look no further than Steve Nash and his two-year run with the 2004-06 Phoenix Suns. Each season Nash averaged 17.0 points and 11.0 assists per game with a 22.7 PER for the “Seven Seconds or Less” Suns. The numbers between Nash and Wall are fairly similar, aside from Wall’s lesser ability to make 3-pointers, which is offset by his superior ability to get to the rim.

As noted here, a fair estimate of Wall’s 2018-19 performance would 20.5 points and 11.5 assists per game — not exactly 2016-7 Westbrook, but definitely closer to 2004-06 Nash.

So what’s the difference between Wall’s potential MVP candidacy and Nash’s prior MVP awards?

Team success. During his two-year reign as MVP, Nash led the Suns to 62 and 54 wins, respectively, and back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances. These are regular season awards, but if the Wizards can finally break through in the East on the back of John Wall averaging similar numbers, expect him to be in the NBA MVP conversation.

Ranking all 30 starting NBA point guards for 2018-19. dark. Next

Odds: Unlikely, but there’s always a chance

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