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Washington Wizards: Best candidates for 2018-19 NBA awards

By Matt H

NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 29: Marcin Gortat #13 of the Washington Wizards, John Wall #2, Markieff Morris #5, Otto Porter Jr. #22 and Bradley Beal #3 talk during the second half of a game against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center on January 29, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 29: Marcin Gortat #13 of the Washington Wizards, John Wall #2, Markieff Morris #5, Otto Porter Jr. #22 and Bradley Beal #3 talk during the second half of a game against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center on January 29, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) /
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Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images
Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images /

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard

The NBA Defensive Player of the Year award is actually fairly easy to predict given the historical outcomes of who has won. Since the 1990-91 season (28 years total), only two players who were not traditional big men playing either power forward or center have won DPOY: Gary Payton and Kawhi Leonard (twice).

Each year, the winning player has been a starting rotation player who managed similar production in one key defensive category: a minimum Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM) rating of at least a 4.0 for the season. For those of us new to the DBPM metric, just consider it as a way to evaluate a player’s defensive impact per 100 possessions with everything above a 4.0 being elite, 1.0-4.0 as above-average to average and any player with less than 1.0 as a swinging saloon door.

At one point in his career, Dwight Howard dominated the NBA on the defensive side of the court as evidenced during his three-year run from 2008-11 where he won Defensive Player of the Year each season, averaging a 4.4 DBPM in the process. Ever since, Howard has barely managed above a 2.0 DBPM, which is evident from his minimized impact on the defensive side of the court.

So if Howard is a shell of his former self, why is he considered the Wizards’ best candidate to win the Defensive Player of the Year?

Easy: No other starter on the Wizards has ever managed above a 2.0 DBPM for an entire season. Basically, if it Howard can’t do it, literally no one can.

Odds: Highly unlikely

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