Milwaukee Bucks: Can they overcome their low draft pedigree?

The Milwaukee Bucks have a lack of lottery talent on the roster. Will that hold them back as they look to move up in the Eastern Conference?

The Milwaukee Bucks are hoping to make a move in the Eastern Conference this season. After multiple seasons of tumultuous inconsistency, the team has a new head coach and a new confidence that this will be the year it hosts a playoff series for the first time in almost 20 years.

The Bucks will face a number of hurdles en route to that goal. The first and perhaps most burdensome is divesting themselves of the bad habits and unsuccessful practices of the Jason Kidd era. Mike Budenholzer and his staff will need to strip some things down before they can build the team philosophy they want.

Yet another thing that cannot be overlooked is the Bucks’ relative lack of pedigree. Most NBA contenders are loaded with high-end talent, and it may be a mistake to say the Bucks are without such talent. They have a superstar in Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-way wingman in Khris Middleton, and a number of other players on the roster.

Yet what the Bucks are significantly lacking in is pedigree — that is, players who came into the league with the expectation of greatness. The Milwaukee Bucks made the playoffs last season starting just one lottery pick — John Henson, selected 14th in the 2012 NBA Draft.

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This season the Bucks will again trot out just one lottery pick in their presumed starting lineup, with Brook Lopez (10th in 2008) replacing Henson at center. Antetokounmpo and Eric Bledsoe were both taken after the lottery in the first round of their respective drafts, and Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon were selected in the second round.

It has to be noted that draft pedigree is not anything significant in and of itself, and in fact, should not be a strong factor in evaluating talent. No team should decide to trade for or sign a player because they were a lottery pick. Budenholzer should not swap Antetokounmpo for Maker just to get a second lottery pick into the starting lineup. The idea of “the Lottery” as the top 14 picks is certainly an arbitrary threshold as well.

Yet there is a strong correlation between draft slot and career impact, and that is much stronger near the top of the draft. Selecting players is always a bit of guesswork, and plenty of lottery picks don’t pan out. But many of them do, and the most successful teams in recent NBA history have reflected this.

Dating back to 1985, when the NBA Draft Lottery was first instituted, every championship team but one has started a top-three pick. The lone exception is the 2007-08 Boston Celtics, who started two players selected fifth, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. To reach the NBA pinnacle, history suggests you need a top draft pick.

Last year’s playoffs were no different. The NBA Finals featured a first overall pick, LeBron James, falling in four games to Finals MVP Kevin Durant, a second overall pick. They advanced to the Finals by beating the Boston Celtics (starting a trio of third overall picks despite missing first pick Kyrie Irving) and the Houston Rockets and their pair of top-four selected guards.

The Milwaukee Bucks simply do not have high-end draft picks on their roster. Their star player was selected 15th, just outside of the lottery. The rotation will feature just a pair of 10th picks, Brook Lopez and Thon Maker, with the aforementioned 14th pick Henson as a reserve big.

In fact, the Bucks are the only team in the league without a player drafted within the top 10, let alone the top-three. They also will most likely be accompanied by just the Miami Heat in starting no player drafted higher than 10th, unless the Heat start Dion Waiters and leave the Bucks all alone.

Last season the Bucks boasted a number of lottery picks, although none playing at a high level — Jason Terry at the end of his career, Rashad Vaughn unable to start his and Shabazz Muhammad and Brandon Jennings playing spot minutes. Of course the most high-profile lottery player on the Bucks, Jabari Parker, left in free agency for Chicago after the two sides could not come to an agreement on a contract.

It should absolutely be reaffirmed that draft pedigree does not equal talent or production. Top picks can flame out — Parker himself has failed to live up to the expectations of a top-two pick — and stars can come from anywhere in the draft, as Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Rudy Gobert or Draymond Green can attest.

Interestingly, there seems to be a divide forming in the Eastern Conference among those teams in contention for a top-four seed. The Bucks will start just one lottery player, Lopez, and in fact closing lineups may swap him out for a player such as Tony Snell (20th pick) or Sterling Brown (second round).

They are joined by the Heat and the Toronto Raptors as teams projected to start just one lottery pick each (Justise Winslow and Jonas Valanciunas, respectively). The Raptors similarly may close without any lottery picks, exchanging 23rd pick OG Anunoby for Valanciunas. All three teams have disappointed in the postseason over the past few years.

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On the other side of the divide are teams loaded with high-end talent. The Philadelphia 76ers will start first overall pick Ben Simmons and third overall pick Joel Embiid, and would like to start first pick Markelle Fultz if healthy. The Indiana Pacers have second overall pick Victor Oladipo and fourth pick Tyreke Evans. The Washington Wizards will start five lottery picks, including four top-three picks.

The Boston Celtics will likewise have an all-lottery lineup, including first overall pick Kyrie Irving. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford were all selected third in their drafts, while Gordon Hayward was picked ninth.

Milwaukee’s roster is mostly established for this season, and highlighting its lack of lottery talent is not meant as a strategy moving forward. Rather, it’s simply an evaluation of the path the Bucks have taken to reach this point, and historically that means their ceiling might be capped. Regardless of when he was drafted, Giannis Antetokounmpo is a top-five player, but the roster around him lacks upside.

To unlock this team’s highest potential, they may need to lean into the only young lottery pick on the roster, Thon Maker. If the flashes he has shown in the postseason the past two years can be stoked into a consistent flame, the Bucks could have the third star they need — and did not find in Parker or Bledsoe. Top-10 talents are the most likely players to become key contributors.

In the end, the Bucks are focused on winning games and not on draft slots. But if the NBA Finals feature the star-laden Warriors against the lottery-loaded Boston Celtics, the Bucks will be at home again looking to next season and wondering if they will ever break through. This roster imbalance is a reality of the present, and may be the detractor of their future.