Golden State Warriors challengers, Part 5: No ceiling for Sixers

As we enter the home stretch of our “Golden State Warriors challengers” series, we take a look at the Philadelphia 76ers — what they are now, and what they could be.

In Parts 1-4 of this series, I’ve made the case and then the caveats for every Golden State Warriors challenger.

For the Philadelphia 76ers, we are going to start sober. There is no reason to believe that last year’s team can compete with the Warriors if its players perform even somewhat similarly to how they did last year.

Even normal, expected growth won’t get it done. Joel Embiid can go from the Defensive Player of the Year runner-up to the award winner. Ben Simmons can crack an All-NBA team this year. Markelle Fultz can regain his jumper and play a full season.

None of that brings Philly to Golden State’s level. The Sixers were overmatched by a decimated Boston Celtics team last May, which was in turn overmatched by a Cleveland Cavaliers team that Golden State absolutely pummeled.

If this type of logic doesn’t convince you (which, honestly, it shouldn’t), maybe their head-to-head results will. The Sixers were No. 3 in the NBA last year with a 102.0 defensive rating, but that number shot up to 121.2 against Golden State. They managed to sustain their offensive efficiency (107.4 to 107.6), but it was no matter.

Wilson Chandler and Zhaire Smith give Brett Brown two guys that can theoretically stay on the floor against Golden State, but both would be more effective as depth pieces (a la Luc Mbah a Moute and Gerald Green) than closing lineup candidates (a la Trevor Ariza and P.J. Tucker).

The problem is, they might be the team’s best hope alongside Simmons, Embiid and Robert Covington. J.J. Redick is a crucial offensive piece, but his age and size leaves a lot to be desired defensively. Fultz is too inexperienced. Dario Saric may not be better than average on either side of the floor in this matchup.

Even Embiid and Simmons have issues here. For all the value Embiid provides as a rim protector, the Warriors can pull him into space and attack. He has the length and recovery instincts to not get torched, but Golden State’s ball movement will force him to into more rotations than he is capable of completing. While Simmons has the mobility and length to be a terror on that end, the Warriors use non-shooters such as him as an opportunity to overwhelm opposing ball-handlers and overload passing lanes.

So why are we talking about the Sixers as a Warriors challenger? If the two face off, it will be next June. Philly, more than perhaps any other team, could be in a different class by that time.

In 94 career games, Embiid has a 57.6 percent true shooting on 34.1 percent usage, with 8.1 win shares. He’s averaged 22.0 points, 9.9 rebounds and 2.0 blocks, while getting to the line 7.6 times per game. He already has Hall of Fame-level post moves, and showed rapid growth in terms of passing and feel for the game as last season progressed. He’s one of the best defensive bigs in basketball, finishing second among bigs in defensive field goal percentage (40.9) and first among all players in opposing field goal percentage while on the floor (42.0) in 2017-18 (per NBA.com).

Simmons, meanwhile, has already racked up 9.2 win shares in just 81 games. He’s not the scorer Embiid is (55.7 percent TS, 22.9 percent usage), but his 8.2 assists and 8.1 rebounds made him a grab-and-go playmaker unlike any we’ve seen come along in decades. He’s a multi-positional force defensively, using his strength, length and athleticism to force turnovers (1.7 steals) without sacrificing position.

A version of the future in which Simmons and Embiid are each top-five NBA players is a realistic one. Given that, major leaps in 2018-19 are real possibilities. What if Embiid becomes an ace post-passer this year and hones his defensive instincts even further? What if Simmons becomes an All-NBA defender and the league’s preeminent playmaker?

Saric also offers a lot of upside. He took massive leaps in all three phases of his shooting efficiency (3-pointers, 2-pointers and free throws) from his rookie to sophomore year, while increasing his rebounds and assists, reducing his turnovers and going from -1.2 win shares to 3.8. He could plateau, sure — but what if he experiences yet another across-the-board leap?

Fultz is the ultimate wildcard. Philly won 52 games last year despite getting nothing from the No. 1 overall pick. If he returns to being the guy he looked like coming out of Washington, what will his penetration, creation, playmaking, transition speed, cutting and spacing do for this offense? Remember that Philly’s guard rotation last year consisted of Redick, Marco Belinelli, Jerryd Bayless, T.J. McConnell and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot.