In Part IV of our “Golden State Warriors’ challengers” series, we take a look at why the Los Angeles Lakers are being underrated as a threat out West.
The Golden State Warriors suck the fun out of everything, like when the Los Angeles Lakers landed the second greatest player of all-time this summer and no one seemed all that excited.
To be fair, LeBron James‘ arrival in L.A. was followed by the loss of Julius Randle and several seemingly strange veteran signings. There are big-picture reasons why these moves make sense (which I have written about elsewhere), but frustration over how the Lance Stephenson, Rajon Rondo, JaVale McGee and Michael Beasley signings affect a potential matchup with Golden State is understandable.
What is not understandable is the logical conclusion being drawn from this. Considering the Cleveland Cavaliers won just 50 games in the East last year, many believe that the Lakers are in danger of missing the playoffs altogether in 2018-19. James is a year older. The West is loaded. Los Angeles has no second All-Star and its veterans are less natural fits next to James than his Cavs teammates.
This analysis seems to exclude something crucial: The Lakers’ stacked young core. Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, Josh Hart and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope were five of the six most important players (the sixth being Julius Randle) on last year’s upstart 35-47 team. They finished with an expected win total of 37.9 (per Cleaning The Glass), and that was with Ball, Ingram and Hart missing a combined 72 games.
Through natural improvement and slightly better luck alone, the Lakers would have been in .500 territory in 2018-19. Replacing Randle with James elevates them above 50-win status, and makes them markedly better than Cleveland.
This is not only due to the sum of L.A.’s parts, but the synergy between them.
Ball had a spectacular rookie year. He defended, rebounded and set up teammates at an elite level for a rookie guard. He shot the ball okay from deep. His major weaknesses were shot creation and free throw shooting, both of which will become less important as he moves off ball.
Ingram and Kuzma have far more natural scoring ability than Ball, but both still struggled against top defenders last season. With James by their side, both should feast on scrambling defenses and easier matchups. Guys like KCP and Hart will experience less severe changes. They are still catch-and-shoot guys that like to push the pace, and doing so will simply be easier with James in the fold.
There are potential pitfalls here. Kuzma, Ingram and Ball will see reduced touches, and may have their skills somewhat neutered in the process. James has turned dynamic offensive teammates into overqualified role players in the past. None of these three youngsters are on the level of Love or Chris Bosh, though. Their games have real weaknesses, ones that L.A. will be better for masking — at least in the short-term.
The Warriors swept the Lakers last season for the first time since 1993-94. The games themselves were far more competitive than they have been in years, though. Los Angeles lost twice in overtime, once by seven and once by 11. Its defense consistently frustrated Golden State, both due to its length and strategy.
Luke Walton knows what makes the Warriors tick — misdirection, ball movement and off-the-dribble 3s. Therefore, he had his team pressure the 3-point line, switch everything and trap Curry and Durant. The Lakers conceded basket cuts and mismatches in order to deny openings to the best trio of jumpshooters ever compiled.
In many ways, the strategy was more effective than the toned-down version the Houston Rockets deployed in the Western Conference Finals. Mike D’Antoni had his team switch everything and pressure the 3-point line, but he worried less about forcing the ball out of Curry and Durant’s hands.
Blue Man Hoop
Although the strategy worked at times, it also enabled massive eruptions in Games 3, 6 and 7. It’s impossible to say whether trapping Curry and Durant would have improved Houston’s overall defense, but it would have put more onus on Golden State’s role players to step up in big moments.
For Los Angeles, adding James only bolsters the viability of its approach.
The biggest downside of the Lakers’ approach last season was how vulnerable it made them to basket cuts. Their bigs were forced to play out in space, and none were quick, long or instinctual enough to recover and protect the rim. Needless to say, James helps in this area just a tad. He can also wreak havoc as a free safety, anticipating the pass while some combination of Ball, Ingram, Caldwell-Pope, Stephenson and Hart trap the ball.
Los Angeles will still be massive underdogs against Golden State should the two teams meet in the postseason. Whereas the other teams we’ve discussed so far in this series — the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors and Houston Rockets — are legitimate threats, it would take major Warriors injuries or wild breakouts for L.A.’s youngsters to give it a realistic chance.
There is one other potential path for the Lakers: a midseason trade. The team held on to its youngsters this offseason, but things can change quickly. The names that populated this summer’s rumor mill (Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, CJ McCollum, Kemba Walker) can become more gettable, and new ones (Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Love) can arise. It is unclear what type of package L.A. would have to put together for any of these guys, or if doing so is something Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka would even consider.
If their goal is to beat Golden State this year, they probably should. They have the right leader, the right role players and the right approach to beat the Warriors. Give James a co-star, and this team could be more daunting than Cleveland ever was.
Until that happens though, they just don’t have enough talent.