Included as part of the Donovan Mitchell trade, Trey Lyles quietly had a breakout season for the Denver Nuggets. How can he build on his recent success?
It can be tough for a player to be a forgotten piece in a significant, franchise-altering trade. In 10-15 years when we reflect back on the 2017 draft night trade that saw the Denver Nuggets trade pick No. 13 to the Utah Jazz in exchange for pick No. 24 and Trey Lyles, many will simply focus on Mitchell and how the Jazz acquired a franchise cornerstone.
However, that does a disservice to Lyles, who was able to capitalize on an increased role and new surroundings to enjoy a breakout season with the Nuggets.
While Mitchell quickly became a recognizable face and go-to scorer on a Jazz team that made the playoffs, Lyles thrived as a role player on a Nuggets team that barely missed the postseason. However, Lyles (a former late lottery pick himself in 2015), posted career highs across the board and showcased his offensive abilities in Denver.
Also, let’s not forget that if Denver made a better selection at pick 24 (say, one of Josh Hart, Kyle Kuzma, Dillon Brooks or Jordan Bell instead of Tyler Lydon), that trade would be viewed differently. Alas, that wasn’t the case, making the trade more lopsided for the Jazz.
After struggling to stand out in his first two seasons with the Jazz, Lyles received more playing time (a career-high 19.1 minutes per game) and opportunities (career-high 7.5 shot attempts per game), and was able to capitalize and produce his best season yet.
Posting a stat line of 9.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game, the most impressive aspect of Lyles’ season was his offensive versatility and improved efficiency, especially from beyond the arc. After hitting just 31.9 percent of his 3-pointers in the 2016-17 campaign, Lyles knocked down 38.1 percent of his 3-pointers last year, making him a true stretch-4 and 5 in Denver’s offense.
Lyles has the ability to contribute playing off-the-ball as a result of this shooting improvement (as well as his awareness and willingness to cut to the rim), or he can capitalize on switches when a smaller defender attempts to stop him in the post.
He dramatically improved his shooting from all areas of the court, hitting a scorching 53.5 percent of mid-range jumpers between 10-16 feet of the rim. Additionally, Lyles became an excellent finisher around the rim (0-3 feet from the rim), hitting 69.7 percent of these shots.
All of these improvements led to Lyles posting a career-high true shooting percentage of 59.1 percent, as well as a career-high 56.6 effective field goal percentage.
Other advanced metrics also paint a positive picture of Lyles’ improvement, as the 22-year-old big posted career highs in Player Efficiency Rating (17.9), win shares (3.9), win shares per 48 minutes (.134), box plus-minus (-0.8) and Value Over Replacement Player (0.4).
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Another key reason Lyles saw the bump in playing time was a result of Paul Millsap‘s injury, which forced the veteran big man to miss more than half of the season. It remains to be seen if Lyles will continue to receive more playing time and opportunities if Millsap stays healthy this season, especially as Denver is desperate to return to the playoffs this season.
The best way for Lyles to carve out a consistent, significant rotation spot is by hitting 3-pointers at an above-average rate while continuing to score from all areas of the court. One area that Lyles will always have the disadvantage against Millsap is on the defensive end, as Millsap has consistently been one of the better big defenders in the league, even at his advanced age.
Lyles continues to struggle on that end of the floor, but he did show improvement this past season, as he wasn’t a net negative on the team’s defense when on the court. However, Lyles is certainly an offensive-minded big, while Millsap is one of the few quality defenders on the Nuggets’ roster, further bolstering his role and importance to the team.
If Lyles can continue to score and shoot like he did this past season, he will always have a consistent rotation with the Nuggets (or any team in the league for that matter). If he can continue to work defensively and be at least a neutral defender, he will be able to increase his playing time, especially in Denver.
With the team having a $30 million team option on Millsap for the 2019-20 season (when he will be entering his age-34 season), Denver will likely decline the option in hopes that they can A) re-sign him at a lower value or B) one of the team’s young bigs can develop into their starting power forward of the future alongside Nikola Jokic.
Lyles is a primary candidate to grow into that starting role, but he may face competition from rookie Michael Porter Jr., who projects to be an extremely valuable small-ball 4 in his career if he can stay healthy. Lyles is entering a pseudo-contract year, as he will hit restricted free agency next summer if he doesn’t come to terms on an extension this fall with Denver.
How the Nuggets value Lyles for the future could be found out soon if they decide to lock up the young big man with an extension in the coming months. Such a contract would reveal their potential intentions to groom Lyles into that starting spot next to Jokic. However, Denver could easily wait and see how Lyles performs this season, hoping to sign him to a lower value in the summer, as teams with cap space will be chasing a plethora of quality free agents.
Regardless, Lyles shouldn’t simply be seen as a forgotten piece of the soon-to-be infamous draft-night trade. It’s clear that the Nuggets obtained a quality offensive big man, one that could soon become their starting power forward of the future.