Portland Trail Blazers: Anfernee Simons’ possible development paths

Portland Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons was drafted because of his high ceiling. Let’s try to take a look at what kind of player he could become.

The Portland Trail Blazers selected the 19-year-old Anfernee Simons with the 24th overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. Simons is a 6’4″, 183-pound guard from the state of Florida. He was committed to playing college basketball at Louisville last season, but backed out as the program dealt with a FBI investigation. Instead, Simons spent a post-graduate year at the IMG Academy.

Pundits as well as many Blazers fans would have preferred Portland picking a player with a higher floor than Simons. However, general manager Neil Olshey stated at the post-draft press conference that he wanted Simons for his high ceiling. In the draft, he sought out a talent that was so special that “you’re not going to get [him] as a free agent and nobody’s going to trade him to you.”

The Trail Blazers have a roster filled with guards, so it isn’t a stretch to say that Simons has his work cut out for him to separate himself from the pack. It’s hard to tell how well he will do in this scenario. However, going off of certain precedents could give us an idea of Anfernee Simons’ possible development trajectories. If we take this tact, we see that Simons is likely going to be okay in the long run.

Only three others players in NBA history have stood 6’4″ while playing in the league at age 19: Jrue Holiday, Jamal Murray and Markelle Fultz. Holiday averaged just 8.0 points, 2.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game during his 2009-10 rookie campaign with the 27-55 Philadelphia 76ers. He has since made an All-Star game appearance and is best-known in the Northwest for helping the New Orleans Pelicans sweep the Blazers in last year’s playoffs.

Murray entered the league at 19 after one season at Kentucky. He averaged 9.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game in 2016-17 with the Denver Nuggets, playing all 82 games and eventually earning a starting role toward the end of the season. His sophomore campaign in 2017-18 saw him play 81 games, start 80 of them and average 16.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game.

However, the wildcard of the bunch is Fultz. He played only 14 games last season in his rookie year with the 76ers, dealing with shoulder issues, shooting mechanic problems and personal anxieties for most of the year. We will find out if Fultz can turn things around in 2018-19, further setting a good example for what to expect from Simons.

If you were to seek out examples from within the Blazers organization, that also seems to show that a rookie guard like Simons will develop on the right track. Portland has drafted and retained three guards for their rookie seasons since Olshey arrived in 2012. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are two of them.

The third is Will Barton. Portland selected Barton at No. 40 in the 2012 NBA Draft. He only averaged 3.8 points and 1.8 rebounds in 144 games over two and a half seasons in Rip City. However, he quickly blossomed into a starting-caliber swingman upon being traded to the Nuggets. Having all three Blazers draftee guards performing at a high-level in the NBA bodes well for what Simons could become.

Also, as a quick aside, it should be noted that coming into an organization like the Blazers that has two great guards in Lillard and McCollum gives Simons double the mentors to pick up good habits from.

There’s a good chance that Anfernee Simons will play in the background this season, mostly getting minutes in blowouts and likely having a stint or two in the G League. However, the Blazers just had a 19-year-old rookie step onto the court and produce quicker than expected.

Zach Collins was selected 10th overall in the 2017 NBA Draft. He was another player that Olshey fell in love with and felt had a high ceiling. However, after spending his single college season as a backup, it was completely fair to assume Collins wouldn’t get a lot of playing time as a rookie.

However, he showed his worth in practice and worked his way into the rotation by the beginning of December. He would go on to play in every game the rest of the season. Collins only averaged 4.4 points and 3.3 rebounds per game on the season, but that still exceeded the expectations most people had for what he would produce in his rookie year. While it is logical to think Simons won’t be a factor this year, don’t be too surprised if Simons is able to do the same.

It’s impossible to know for certain how Anfernee Simons will grow as a player. It’s especially difficult because he didn’t play any college basketball before coming to the league. However, if you observe the development of other 6’4″ 19-year-olds, guards recently drafted by the Blazers, or even other 19-year-old Blazer rookies, it seems that Simons is on track to becoming a productive player in the NBA.