Milwaukee Bucks: Would Giannis Antetokounmpo head West?

The Eastern Conference is losing its homegrown stars as they head to the Western Conference. Will Giannis Antetokounmpo follow in their footsteps?

The Milwaukee Bucks know the clock is ticking. While they grapple with all of the difficulties of building and managing a team, at the back of their minds is the reality that time is running out. On July 1, 2021, their All-NBA forward Giannis Antetokounmpo will be an unrestricted free agent.

Over the next few seasons, the Bucks will do everything in their power to convince Antetokounmpo to stay. They will prove on the court and off that the Bucks can contend, that Milwaukee is a great place to live, and that his best NBA career happens on this team and no other. That, and hope a super-max contract helps seal the deal.

The reality is that the Bucks have every right to be paranoid that Antetokounmpo might leave in free agency — or even force his way out before. Not because of anything their star player has said or done; he has been consistent that he loves playing in Milwaukee. Rather, recent NBA history suggests that the Eastern Conference’s best are going to pack their bags and head to the Western Conference.

LeBron James prominently made the move this summer, leaving behind an Eastern Conference where he spent 15 years. On the Los Angeles Lakers, James will have to battle a number of stars in a loaded West, many of whom came from the East themselves.

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Looking back, 37 different players have earned a place on an All-NBA Team over the past five seasons. Of those 37, 15 players have spent their entire careers in the Western Conference. Only six players in the East can make such a claim for their conference: Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Andre Drummond, Kyrie Irving, John Wall and Joakim Noah.

Of the remaining 16, six were All-NBA players from the East who have since moved to the Western Conference: LeBron James, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan, Isaiah Thomas and Dwight Howard. Three of those players made All-NBA teams in the West, and James and DeRozan could make it five of six this upcoming season.

Five players did the opposite, winning All-NBA in the West and since moving to the Eastern Conference: Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Kevin Love, Blake Griffin and Goran Dragic. None have made an All-NBA team in the East, although Leonard could this season if he stays healthy.

This information highlights the trend in the modern NBA. Star players are changing teams at a record pace, and when they do, the talent is moving West. The West has more homegrown stars, but is also acquiring the East’s homegrown stars while they are still in their primes.

This has led to an increasingly lopsided distribution of talent. Of those 37 All-NBA players, 25 have been on at least two All-NBA squads, and 19 made two teams within the past five years (more or less “current” stars). Of those 19 players, 16 are going to play for a Western Conference team next season, leaving just three in the East: Antetokounmpo, Griffin and Leonard.

Following the trend, the differences were much less stark over the past few decades. The Miami Heat trio were all homegrown Eastern stars, and the Boston Celtics saw two West stars come East to win a title. But the current state of affairs has the West talent pool well out in front.

There is certainly hope for the East to begin righting the ship, with players such as Embiid, Ben Simmons, Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis in the pipeline. Kyrie Irving, Victor Oladipo and Embiid could all reach their second All-NBA squad while in the East next season, and players such as Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker could win their first.

Bringing things back to the Milwaukee Bucks, what does this mean for their future with Giannis Antetokounmpo? First, they have every right to be afraid that he will leave — history suggests it may be more likely than not. Even if he stays in the East, he could very well change teams. Only 13 of the aforementioned 37 stars have been on the same team their entire careers.

Antetokounmpo leaving could be devastating for a small-market franchise like Milwaukee with very little historical drawing power. It was viewed as a major coup for the Bucks to sign a “star” such as Greg Monroe three summers ago, and he had never and subsequently has never made an All-Star team, let alone All-NBA. If Antetokounmpo leaves, they will most likely have to break down and rebuild through the draft.

Yet the Bucks should not lose hope, either, as Antetokounmpo very well could stay in town. The examples may be entirely in the West — Stephen Curry, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant — but stars do commit to teams for the distance. The common denominator for those players? Success.

That will need to be the pitch for the Milwaukee Bucks. Not parading the benefits of Milwaukee, or signing one of his brothers to a contract, or even the money. In the end, if the Bucks want to see Antetokounmpo in green for the next decade they will need to prove they can put a winning team around him.

While they do so, the clock in the background is continuing to tick.