Golden State Warriors challengers, Part III: The Raptors get their Claw
The Toronto Raptors are better than ever. Is that enough to beat the Dubs? Let’s examine this in Part III of our “Golden State Warriors challengers” series.
For the last several years, the East’s leading faux contender has represented an ideal Finals matchup for the Golden State Warriors. Devoid of LeBron James or a Brad Stevens-led defense, a Finals date with the Toronto Raptors would be quick and easy.
Suddenly, Toronto is a nightmare — perhaps the most dangerous team in the association for Golden State. And it only took one move.
No, the Raptors don’t have the bevy of scoring options the Boston Celtics have. They don’t have a Houston Rockets-level superstar duo, nor do they have King James. What they do have is the one guy other than James who truly terrifies this Warriors team.
I’m not going to get into Kawhi Leonard‘s health here. If he’s not still an MVP level player, then Toronto isn’t making the Finals, let alone challenging Golden State. In other words, disregard this article if Leonard is not Leonard anymore.
The last time the Warriors saw Leonard, he was playing on a bum ankle — and was still giving them the business. It was Game 1 of the 2017 Western Conference Finals, and the Spurs were up 25 points in the third quarter.
Leonard had 26 points, eight rebounds, three assists and a steal, but that says nothing of how dominant he was. He was 11-for-11 at the line in just under 24 minutes. He was pounding the air out of the ball, draining the Oracle crowd of oxygen in the process. This, combined with his smothering defense, suffocated the Warriors.
Leonard’s dominance of Golden State that day — before an aggravation of his sprained ankle ended his season — was nothing unique. His offensive skill-set and frame has always made him a tougher cover for the Warriors than guys like James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis. He’s also hands-down the best Kevin Durant defender in the world, and probably the best Stephen Curry stopper as well.
He may not be better than Curry or Durant, but a healthy Leonard is in the same tier. Along with James, these are the four NBA players who are unquestionably good enough to be the best player on a title team. Harden’s defense and propensity to wear down (and sometimes collapse) in the postseason makes him a question mark. Davis is as good as anyone in theory, but the extent of his playoff resume thus far is a sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers.
The fact that Toronto now has one of those four guys is being understated. It was specifically their lack of top-end talent that doomed them year after year in the playoffs. No matter how deep, versatile, balanced and well-coached their roster was, their best player was either Kyle Lowry or DeMar DeRozan. They would get smoked by James, and struggle against John Wall, Paul George and Giannis Antentokounmpo. This, despite being the Eastern Conference’s winningest team over the past four seasons.
Now the Raptors have the conference’s best player, and they added him without sacrificing their other strengths. Losing Jakob Poeltl hurts a little, but not nearly as much as gaining Danny Green helps. Lowry and Serge Ibaka may be a year older, but the overall development curve of this team is still trending up. Jonas Valanciunas and Delon Wright are both 26. Norman Powell is 25. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are both 24, while OG Anunoby is 21. Even Leonard is still just 27.
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Toronto will be better than last year, and significantly so. It has a real chance to make the Finals — and not real in the “I can convince myself of crazy things because I’m so bored of seeing the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Finals” way.
As far as beating the Warriors goes? That admittedly takes some mental gymnastics. It obviously starts with Leonard being the same guy he was two years ago. Then it takes Lowry and Ibaka staving off decline and rising under pressure. After that, it takes significant growth from at least a few of the team’s youngsters. Finally, it takes new Raptors head coach Nick Nurse having what it takes to hang with Steve Kerr.
If all that happens, Toronto presents Golden State with more issues than last year’s Rockets. The Raps will have a similar ability to slow it down, isolate and space the floor on offense, with a stable of defenders to put the Rockets to shame. Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, Luc Mbah a Moute, Clint Capela and Chris Paul made life difficult at times, but when the chips were down, Curry and Durant got off. There is no guarantee that happens against Leonard and Green, and Toronto will be able to play five quality defenders at all times (Harden and Eric Gordon gave Houston no such luxury).
Of course, being better than Houston does not mean that Toronto would be likely to win. Had the Warriors been at their healthiest and sharpest in the Western Conference Finals, it would have almost certainly ended in five games. The Raptors don’t only need Golden State to be off its game, they need to be on top of theirs.
To assume that the Warriors’ WCF showing was an anomalous low point, however, is a distortion. This team is getting older, thinner on the wing and will be going for a fifth straight Finals appearance. Consistent greatness a la their 2017 playoff run is likely a thing of the past.
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Even that 16-1 team had trouble with Leonard. These Raptors are better than those Spurs. Should Golden State face them in the Finals, it will need to be better than it was at any point last season.