Analyzing Elfrid Payton’s fit with the New Orleans Pelicans

In the offseason, the New Orleans Pelicans signed Elfrid Payton, a guard still looking to make it in the league. Here’s how he can fit with the Pelicans.

The New Orleans Pelicans‘ 2018 offseason can be simplified to a switch at the big and point guard positions, with Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton replacing DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo. Many praised the team for bringing in Randle, a young, athletic big man that can thrive in an up-tempo system.

However, spend some time discussing the Payton signing with those on Twitter and you will quickly discover the distaste many have for it as a result of his inconsistency and lack of success in his four seasons in the league.

With Jrue Holiday finding success and comfort playing off-the-ball at the 2, Elfrid Payton will likely see a big role in New Orleans as a starter, making his potential fit even more important to figure out. Will the move from Rondo to Payton make as much of a difference as many on Twitter proclaim? How can the Pelicans’ system bring the best out of Payton? Let’s take a closer look.

Payton’s success in transition

The key (and potentially sole) reason to be excited to about Payton joining the Pelicans is a result of the fast pace that Alvin Gentry like his team to play at. Last season, New Orleans led the league in pace, and really turned on the jets once Cousins went down with is Achilles injury. The Orlando Magic teams that Payton played on throughout his career consistently ranked around league-average in pace, but that didn’t stop Payton from thriving in transition.

A quick glance at Payton’s on/off numbers on Cleaning the Glass show the 24-year-old’s tendency to be at his best when running in transition:

Throughout his career, Payton has consistently had a positive impact on his team’s transition play, as he is able to use his quickness and athleticism to navigate a defense still running back. By attacking in transition or early in a possession, Payton’s limits as a shooter and off-ball player are not exposed, thereby allowing him to create quality looks for himself or others.

An analysis of “Gentry Ball” by Kumar also revealed some promising trends surrounding Payton’s game. As he points out: “The bulk of Payton’s offense has come from the “Average” range. Yet we can see clearly that Payton is at his most efficient in the early portions of the shot clock, or what I like to call the “Early Shot Range” (24-15 seconds).”

The Pelicans saw nearly 44 percent of their team’s offense come between 24-15 seconds of a possession, allowing Payton to play at a pace that best suits his game. For him to succeed in New Orleans, the team should continue to rely on a fast pace and generate early offense.

Luckily for the Pelicans, Payton has been steadily increasing his amount of early offense in recent seasons. As Kumar also points out, “not only has Payton steadily been taking more Early Shots, he has gotten noticeably more efficient. Payton took 51.9% of his shots in the Early Range in 2018, sporting a EFG% (effective field goal percentage) of 62.1%. It should be no surprise that 2018 was also Payton’s most efficient year in the association.”

(An aside: Please make sure to read Kumar’s article, as he includes several key charts and graphs surrounding Payton’s game and success in early offense situations.)

Simply put, if Elfrid Payton is going to succeed as a key cog in the Pelicans’ offensive machine, he will need to play at a fast pace and look to initiate the offense early in the shot clock. From outlet passes to open shooters to attacking the basket against a scrambling defense, the Pelicans provide the perfect system for the fifth-year guard.

Going from Rondo to Payton

Besides the obvious difference between the two in age (Rondo is 31 years old, while Payon is 24), many have thrown out comparisons between their play styles and skill-sets.

It’s easy to compare the two guards, seeing as they are both non-shooters that have wowed fans with impressive box score numbers and triple-doubles. However, when it comes to this upcoming season, how much of a downgrade is it to go from Rondo to Payton?

The short answer is not much. This is mainly a result of the aforementioned discussion of Payton’s ability to thrive in the Pelicans’ system and Rondo’s inconsistent effort throughout the course of the regular season.

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The two put up similar stat lines last season, with Payton looking to score more while Rondo focuses on getting assists. Both guards were very comparable when it comes to advanced metrics such as Player Efficiency Rating and true shooting percentage, while Payton graded out better according to box plus-minus and Value Over Replacement Player.

The main difference between the two, and the area in which the downgrade may be seen the most, is during the crunch time of the regular season and the playoffs. The narrative of #PlayoffRondo is as strong as ever after his impressive performance during the Pelicans’ 2018 run, averaging 10.3 points, 12.2 assists and 7.6 rebounds per game while hitting 42.1 percent of his 3-pointers.

Payton has never played in the playoffs, or even played in meaningful regular season games beyond December or January, making it harder to predict how the pressure and expectations will get to him. One thing is clear though: New Orleans’ up-tempo system was proven to lead to success, as the team rode it to a strong finish to the regular season and first round sweep over the Portland Trail Blazers.

With Payton being in a system that plays to his best abilities and Rondo’s efforts being inconsistent during the regular season, don’t be surprised if you don’t notice a significant downgrade at the point guard position.

Elfrid Payton will frustrate with his lack of shooting (maybe his new haircut will change that!) and decision-making, but he is now in the best position to succeed, and with a talented core around him, he can blend in and be what the Pelicans need at the point guard position this season.