Which Phoenix Suns player is most likely to be traded?

Tier 5 – The trade bait

• T.J. Warren
• Tyson Chandler

“The replacements” sounds like it would be the final tier. It certainly seems to designate the lowest players on the team. Certainly, it includes the players least likely to see playing time.

However, those least likely to see playing time are not the most likely to be traded. The replacements are almost neutral: maybe they get traded or cut, maybe they don’t, it depends on what the roster needs. The “trade bait” tier, however, contains the players who have a better than average chance of leaving.

Trevor Ariza is almost the polar opposite of T.J. Warren, other than being a wing. Ariza is the classic 3-and-D player, and he practically made the mold, while Warren is more of a mid-range shot creator. If Ariza is a poor man’s Paul George, Warren is between New York and Oklahoma City Carmelo Anthony.

Warren very well may be pushed to the Phoenix Suns’ bench this year. Booker, Ayton and Jackson should be locks to start, and the other two spots could easily be taken by Knight and Ariza.

However, Warren has the talent to be a starter in the NBA for a while. He’s only 24 years old, and was the Phoenix Suns’ second-highest scorer last year. He’s on a reasonably priced long-term contract, and has proven himself in the league.

Yet it’s those very qualities that make him likely to be traded. He’s a quality young player who could help a team that’s rebuilding or a team that’s contending, but due to fit and the franchise’s direction, he probably wouldn’t start for his incumbent team. That’s the same description that fit Dennis Schroder on the Atlanta Hawks and Jae Crowder on the Boston Celtics before the two were traded.

In short: T.J. Warren doesn’t fit super well, and he carries more trade value than most other members of the team. If he can be traded to get back someone that fits the team better (while opening up minutes for Ariza, Bender and Chriss at the 4, or Bridges and Jackson at the 3) then that’s a deal the Suns should at the very least take, if not actively seek.

Tyson Chandler is an entirely different story. He’s unlikely to see a ton of minutes this year, but his mentorship could prove invaluable. Ayton already has a burgeoning post game and shot. If Chandler can teach him how (and motivate him) to set good screens and protect the rim, Ayton could end up as a player with the best of Karl-Anthony Towns and Clint Capela.

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The reason Chandler makes the list is his age and contract. He’ll turn 36 around the time the season starts (he’s actually a month older than Amar’e Stoudemire!), and he’s in the last year of his deal. Unlike Ariza though, he wasn’t a recent signee and he doesn’t have a clear path to anything more than garbage-time minutes.

Chandler’s contract is not only expiring though; it also has a value of about $13.6 million. In the NBA, expiring contracts from somewhere between $8-15 million are often the magic number. These contracts can be thrown into many different deals to make the numbers work.

Excluding Ayton, there are only three of these medium-sized contracts on the Phoenix Suns: Warren, Chandler and Knight. Knight’s deal isn’t expiring like Chandler’s, and he doesn’t carry the trade value of Warren (plus he fills a need at the 1-spot) so that’s why he’s not included on this list of trade bait.

Chandler could be tossed into a three-team trade as the necessary salary to complete a deal, or he could be the key to unlocking a trade for the Phoenix Suns themselves.

Jimmy Butler decides he wants to get away from Tom Thibodeau, and the Minnesota Timberwolves want Josh Jackson? It doesn’t work by itself, but it does when you include Chandler.

It’s not anything Chandler did wrong that makes him likely to get traded. In fact, other teams might enjoy having him on the team as a veteran backup and not just waive him immediately, like the Hawks did when they acquired Carmelo.

Still, an aging vet on a rebuilding team with a perfectly sized expiring contract? That’s the perfect recipe to be traded.