The focus of last year’s “Golden State Warriors challengers” series was on six teams that could prevent a dynasty. One of those six came awfully close, and that team opens this year’s series. It is too late to prevent a dynasty, but can the Houston Rockets end one?
To open last year’s “Warriors challengers” series, I posited that a team threatening the Golden State Warriors was not as farfetched as it might seem.
A year prior to that, the Warriors were dead-even with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Following that series, they added Kevin Durant. I posited that for a team to reach their new level, it had to first become as good as the 2015-16 Thunder, and then add another star.
The Houston Rockets, I argued, had a chance to be that team. Having just added Chris Paul, their superstar duo was comparable to Durant and Russell Westbrook, and their supporting cast was superior. Coming off his 10th consecutive All-Star season, I believed that Carmelo Anthony could be that player.
In an ironic twist, the disgruntled star ended up with Durant’s old team. Alongside Westbrook and Paul George, Anthony had a chance to push OKC into true contention, though ego, health and clashing play style all worked to derail those hopes.
A year later, Anthony is in fact headed to Houston.
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He arrives with a considerably different reputation than he had last summer. Although Melo was never seen as a great defender, ball-mover or teammate, his individual scoring acumen made those deficiencies worth it. While his volume and efficiency had declined (26.3 points per game on 55.4 percent true shooting in his 20s, to 22.6 points per game on 53.2 percent true shooting through the first three years of his 30s), it was easy to pin the regression on the dumpster fire that was the New York Knicks. Get Anthony alongside high quality teammates, and he would again thrive.
That hypothesis was almost instantly disproven. Even as a third option, Anthony’s efficiency reached new lows (16.2 points per game on 50.3 percent true shooting). He refused to work to get open off ball, instead calling for it as if he was still the man.
A younger Melo would have at least thrived against the tertiary stoppers he often faced, but 33-year-old Melo struggled to create separation, to blow by, to get lift on his jumper or to draw fouls. In a move that would have vaulted Houston into championship contender status a year ago, the Rockets’ addition of Melo is seen by most as insignificant, if not detrimental.
But here’s the thing: The Rockets were closer than we thought last year. In fact, they were already where many, including myself, thought Melo would take them: to the brink of a championship.
When evaluating Houston’s offseason, it is important to remember the starting point. The season’s end result felt inevitable in hindsight, but the Rockets pushed Golden State to the absolute brink.
Sure, there are reasons they lost. Paul’s injury was hardly a fluke. It was not pure coincidence that Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Durant shot the lights out during the season’s biggest half of basketball while Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon and a gassed James Harden went cold. That doesn’t mean that Houston couldn’t have won. Had a few more of its shots fallen, the momentum of the game could have turned.
The general consensus is that Houston got worse this summer, particularly in the event of a potential rematch. Its ability to switch everything on defense and play five-out on offense around Harden and Paul isolations neutralized so much of what the Warriors do best. It took them out of transition, made them pay for aggressive help defense and forced them into playing Houston’s style, at least for stretches. Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute were major parts of that scheme, and both have moved on.
These losses cannot be written off. Mbah a Moute was not close to 100 percent in the Western Conference Finals, but his defense still mattered. Ariza went 0-of-12 from the field in Game 7 and shot 20.0 percent from deep throughout the series, but his defense on Durant was crucial in Houston’s victories.
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Still, think about that. The Rockets were up 11 points at halftime in Game 7 over the Warriors despite Ariza and Mbah a Moute both underwhelming. That same team brought back Paul and Clint Capela, added James Ennis, Michael Carter-Williams, De’Anthony Melton…and Carmelo Anthony.
What are the odds that Ennis shoots better than Ariza did in a rematch with Golden State? Or that one of Carter-Williams or Melton can provide similar value to a hampered Mbah a Moute? If so, how good does Anthony really have to be to push this team over the top?
The Warriors will still be favored. They ended up outscoring the Rockets by 63 over the seven games, and did so without Andre Iguodala for four games, a rusty Curry and no DeMarcus Cousins. Houston also didn’t have Paul for two games, and assuming health will swing further toward Golden State would be foolish.
There are those within the Rockets organization who are ecstatic Golden State used its Mid-Level Exception on Cousins. Rather than hedging against another Iguodala injury (or one to any other wing), it added a player that may or may not be healthy or playable come May 2019. With the Rockets continuing to focus on switching and isolating against mismatches, they see any minutes that Golden State plays a more traditional 5 as a major win.
Anthony has a chance to elevate this strategy to its next level. He also has a chance to ruin it. If he can function as a low-usage floor-spacer who attacks closeouts and plays mismatch ball only when absolutely necessary, the Warriors will have a much harder time defending Mike D’Antoni‘s offense than last year. If he continues to exert limited effort off the ball and demand a role larger than he is currently capable of thriving in, he’ll be an offensive liability. And if he is unwilling to work and leverage his size on defense, the offense will hardly matter.
If Cousins and Anthony cancel out, that’s a win for the Warriors. They were the better team last year and had the better summer outside of these two additions. If either has a big series, it could be enough to swing the championship. That, all things considered, is a win for Houston.