Washington Wizards: Otto Porter Jr. 2018-19 NBA season preview

Otto Porter Jr. is the next player in the 2018-19 Washington Wizards season preview. What can we expect from the “3 and D” wing and is he vital to the Wizards success?

Imagine you are buying a new car and you have to choose between the final two parked side by side on the lot. The first car is reliable, gets great mileage, has enough accessories to be an upgrade over your previous ride and most of all it’s in budget.

The second car offers similar performance with a few additional perks like leather interior, heated seats and a Bose stereo package. You want the second car more but it comes with a much steeper price tag.

Otto Porter Jr. is the second car.

“3 and D” is a common description for NBA wing players at the small forward position who make 3-pointers and provide above average defense.

Porter offers exactly what most teams look for in an effective “3 and D” player, especially on offense. Last season, the best of his career, Porter averaged 44.1 percent from 3 on 4.6 attempts, an effective feld goal percentage of .581 and a solid 16.8 points per game.

If you’re thinking that Porter’s average points per game aren’t necessarily All-Star worthy, make sure to factor in his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 18.37, which placed him well behind LeBron James and Kevin Durant (who isn’t) as the fourth overall small forward last season, just below Paul George‘s PER of 18.71.

Basically, Porter makes enough 3-pointers to be one of the most highly efficient off ball scoring options at his position.

So that puts the “3” into perspective, but what about the “D”? Well, unfortunately Porter’s defensive performance can be described as lackluster at best.

More from Hoops Habit

Porter averages a career 106 defensive rating in addition to a 0.9 defensive box plus/minus (DBPM), which are both estimates of points allowed per 100 possessions against league average players, placing him below fellow Eastern Conference “3 and D” juggernauts like Robert Covington (2.1 DBPM) , Kent Bazemore (1.1 DBPM) and Josh Richardson (1.5 DBPM).

I listed these players because when you start to realize that most of the Eastern Conference is filled with garbage offensive players at the wing position, being an above average defender shouldn’t be too hard to achieve on a nightly basis.

Yet, Porter is the very definition of a slightly below average defender compared to his peers.

This is even more significant when you realize Porter also commands an average annual salary of $27.2 million over the next three seasons, which is roughly $10 million to $20 million more than Covington, Bazemore and Richardson.

For a much higher price, Porter offers a few more bells and whistles but is the added offensive firepower worth the cost?

While this question won’t impact Porter’s 2018-19 performance, it does make sense to determine his overall trade value on a Wizards team that is once again expected to under-perform expectations.

So what can we expect next season from Porter? Currently he sees the bulk of his 3-point shot attempts coming off an assist as evidenced by an astounding 0.946 assist percentage.

This means his offensive efficiency mainly hinges on catch and shoot action coming from John Wall as the Wizards primary facilitator.

Since I forecast Wall’s assists to slightly increase this season it would make sense that Porter’s offensive numbers will as well.

The final 2018-19 prediction for Porter? Averages of 15.5 points per game on 5.0 attempts along with his continued sub-par 106 defensive rating and 1.0 DBPM defensive performance and most importantly, he ends up playing for a different team by the end of the season.

dark. Next. Complete 2018 offseason grades for all 30 NBA teams

Porter is a luxury car the Wizards can no longer afford.

Home/Washington Wizards