Who is the Brooklyn Nets’ most promising young ball-handler?

A year after the Brooklyn Nets’ huge investment in D’Angelo Russell, he might not even be the most promising young ball-handler on the team.

When you agree to pay Timofey Mozgov $48 million over three years, you better have a good reason. When you trade a first round pick and your franchise’s all-time leading scorer for the privilege of paying Timofey Mozgov $48 million over three years, you better have a damn good reason.

For the Brooklyn Nets, that reason was two years removed from being the No. 2 overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft. He had ice in his veins, an easy pull-up jumper and the upside a team that had just surrendered the No. 1 overall pick in a historically ill-fated trade desperately needed.

D’Angelo Russell didn’t seem like a bad bet. His first two NBA seasons weren’t great, but there were mitigating factors.

Russell’s rookie year was entangled with Kobe Bryant’s circus-like farewell tour. Not to mention, his own head coach relished every opportunity to publicly shame him. His second year was marred by injury as he attempted to acclimate to a new coach and new co-star.

Russell’s first two years were bad data points, but they were forgivable if Russell could take to a new franchise with shrunken expectations and a need for the faintest glimmer of hope.

Instead, Russell spent 2017-18 confirming the worst suspicions of him. He scored inefficiently, turned the ball over, was one of the least aware off-ball defenders in the league and continued to struggle with knee injuries (which limited him to a career-low 48 games).

At any given time, Russell was sitting or struggling. Meanwhile, another young ball-handler was emerging for the Nets.

He showed growth as an on-ball scorer and playmaker. He improved markedly on his unspectacular rookie year. At this point, I’m willing to do it. I’m breaking out the hot take cannon and firing my shot: Caris LeVert is now the Nets’ most promising young ball-handler.

As an on-ball scorer, LeVert is closer to being better than Russell, and it starts with his first step:

LeVert is an explosive slasher. His ability to blow by his defender at the point of attack allowed LeVert to attempt 39 percent of his shots at the rim in 2017-18, which ranked in the 78th percentile among wings. Just 34 percent of LeVert’s makes at the rim were assisted, placing in the 87th percentile among wings. LeVert drove to the rim at will.

LeVert’s high volume at the rim and his primary defender’s inability to stay in front of him meant he got to the free throw line a lot too; he placed in the 78th percentile among all wings in shooting foul percentage.

He’s not some elite finisher, and he does have some serious warts in that respect. His vertical explosion is poor, and he really, really struggles to finish through contact with his weak frame, but LeVert takes high-quality shots, which leads to pretty capable on-ball scoring.

Where LeVert’s aptitude around the rim really shines, though, is in contrast to Russell.

Among NBA point guards, I think Russell might be a zero percentile athlete. He’s decent in some respects – his solid lateral movement enables him to play shockingly good on-ball defense – but his straight-line speed and vertical explosion are truly as bad as it gets:

Russell cannot get by anyone — not guards, not bigs on switches, no one. The result was a heinous shot distribution in 2017-18, in which just 20 percent of Russell’s attempts came at the rim (18th percentile among point guards).

Russell doesn’t get to the rim, so he doesn’t get to the line; he was a 36th percentile shooting foul drawer in 2017-18.

Without rim attempts and free throws, Russell needs pull-up shooting to be an efficient on-ball scorer. Right about now, you’re probably picturing this:

Russell’s shot looks effortless. It feels like he should score at an elite level off-the-bounce and leverage the threat of his shot into dribble penetration. Yet, he was only a 65th percentile off-the-dribble shooter in the half-court in 2017-18, per Synergy.

The flashes of elite pull-up shooting are just that: flashes. Without consistency, without a mechanism to constantly pressure the defense, Russell fails to pull defenders from his teammates. His lack of scoring gravity means tighter windows and fewer obvious options, which means tough decisions.

D’Angelo Russell has the decision-making acumen of the rash 22-year-old he is:

Russell flashes incredible vision and creativity as a passer, but the average outcome of his passes is extremely poor, because he’s a truly terrible decision-maker. Through three years, he’s never had a turnover percentage below 14.5 percent (never exceeding the 38th percentile in turnover percentage among point guards).

LeVert, meanwhile, is a deliberate playmaker, and his proficient scoring with the ball warps the defense, creating openings for him to showcase his strong decision-making and solid passing touch:

LeVert doesn’t wow as a passer. He’s not anticipatory. He doesn’t consistently have anything beyond basic passes to poppers/rollers or shooters one pass away. He doesn’t have the eye-popping skip passes Russell occasionally tosses.

LeVert’s solid, though. Including passes, LeVert was in the 74th percentile in per possession offensive efficiency last year (Russell was in the 54th), per Synergy. When LeVert sees a pass, he makes it. When there’s a questionable window, he avoids it. He forsakes flash in favor of function. He is the anti-Russell.

Given LeVert’s relatively limited experience as a primary ball-handler, that’s not a bad place to be. And given where LeVert is as a ball-handler, he’s a pretty compelling prospect.

Right now, LeVert’s a really good secondary ball-handler. He’s a 6’6” volume slasher who can hit spot-up 3s. He’s a useful player as is.

If his vision develops, he might be a primary ball-handler. If his pull-up even reaches Russell’s level (LeVert has struggled mightily shooting off the bounce throughout college and in the NBA), he’s going to be a stud.

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Yet with Russell, I find myself asking the same rather upsetting question every time I watch him: What is he really, really good at?

Relative to the average NBA player, the answer’s probably pull-up shooting. But Russell’s not that good off-the-dribble. He’s certainly not good enough to put the ball in his hands, because an NBA offense cannot survive his decision-making.

He’s always been a good spot-up shooter, but he’s far from elite, and he’s never been a high volume or efficiency off-movement shooter. He’s not Kyle Korver; you’re not putting Russell on an NBA court purely for his catch-and-shoot ability.

I used to be extremely high on Russell. I bought the flashes, thought there was enough there that when he streamlined the rest of his game, he’d be a star. The flashes remain. He’ll drop 24 in a quarter. He’ll throw a jaw-dropping pass. With them, however, remains the baby fat that all young players must shed if they’re to grow from prospects into players.

Today, D’Angelo Russell is just as far from being a competent primary ball-handler or useful NBA player as he was three years ago when the Lakers made him the No. 2 overall pick, or as he was one year ago when the Nets paid dearly to take a shot on him.

LeVert’s a lot closer. He has holes in his game – he’s not a great finisher, he lacks shot versatility, his point-of-attack defense is porous – but he does things on an NBA court that make sense in a team construct.

Making sense, doing a few things very well and a few more decently are enough for Caris LeVert. They’re enough to make him a solid prospect. They’re enough to give him a slight chance at one day serving as a primary ball-handler. They’re enough to elevate him to the status of the Brooklyn Nets’ most promising young ball-handler.