Washington Wizards: John Wall 2018-19 NBA season preview

What better way to pass the time than sift through the current Washington Wizards roster and predict the upcoming 2018-19 season? We start with John Wall.

The calendar has flipped to August, meaning it’s officially the off offseason. NBA junkies are left stranded, desperately searching the internet for new content like that random dude on the beach waving around a metal detector rocking an old bucket hat and half-buttoned Hawaiian shirt.

So I figured, why not give the people what they want? As the summer dies down, I wanted to ramp things up by predicting the outcomes for every significant player on the Washington Wizards for the 2018-19 season.

What do I mean by “significant”?

Unfortunately, there won’t be much analysis provided for all those Tomas Satoransky and Jodie Meeks fans out there, but that’s okay since I’m pretty sure that fanbase mostly consists of Tomas Satoransky and Jodie Meeks.

For these player previews, there is no better place to start than with the Washington Wizards’ best player, John Wall.

Wall enters the 2018-19 season, his ninth overall, as a soon to be 28-year-old point guard who leverages his elite explosiveness in the open court to either attack the rim or hit an open man for a corner 3.

Wall’s best season to date came during the 2016-17 campaign where he averaged 23.1 points and 10.7 assists per game, finished Third Team All-NBA, made his fourth consecutive All-Star game (he’s made five total) and led the league in total number of scowls and mean mugs.

On the contrary, aside from his two injury-plagued seasons in 2012-13 and 2017-18, it was tough to factor in any “down” performances, since there has been a gradual improvement in his play every year since he entered the league.

So the real question is, does John Wall possess the ability to elevate his game to the next level and finally enter the MVP conversation, or was his 2016-17 season indicative of the best possible outcome?

The answer? I wouldn’t bank on the former.

NBA point guards don’t usually reach their apex in efficiency until the ages of 28-32. This is because it takes a long time to develop on-court IQ, passing vision, ball-handling and shot mechanics, which all factor heavily towards a point guard’s total efficiency rating.

With Wall turning 28 this season, that should be great news for an expected spike in his numbers, right? Not quite.

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The current crop of elite NBA point guards in the same peak age range as John Wall are Stephen Curry, James Harden, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Kyle Lowry, Kemba Walker, Damian Lillard and Mike Conley. Of this group, only Curry, Harden and Westbrook represent the top point guards in terms of efficiency rating that have also won MVPs.

The rest? I would say Paul stands alone in a tier by himself, leaving the remaining players struggling to catch up. However, since the goal is to best predict Wall’s future performance, the question really becomes why does his best season to date (2016-17) align more with average Chris Paul than peak James Harden?

The answer doesn’t bode well for a breakout season. Wall consistently falls below his peers when it comes to overall player efficiency due to one primary reason: John Wall can’t shoot.

If you look at his career shot chart, 82.5 percent of his attempts have been 2-pointers, of which 32.4 percent have come from within three feet of the rim. Shocker, John Wall likes to dunk the basketball.

As the shot selection moves away from the rim, Wall’s efficiency and shooting percentages take a precipitous dive. With today’s emphasis on easy dunks, layups, free throws and 3s, he’s missing a vital component of his game that will only morph into a glaring hole as age and diminishing athleticism factor more into the equation.

Given Wall’s history of knee surgeries and their looming impact on his ability to get to the rim, the outlook for him improving on that 2016-17 performance becomes an increasingly riskier bet.

So what is John Wall’s likely outcome for the 2018-19 season?

As we stated before, his inability to improve his shooting metrics and the knee injuries starting to catch up with him will probably result in lower scoring, steal and rebound totals from his breakout 2016-17 season.

However, he is entering the age range for peak point guard efficiency, which should help improve other facets of Wall’s game like total assists and a reduced turnover rate. Also, keep in mind that Bradley Beal and Otto Porter Jr. are entering their prime years, which should also boost Wall’s assist numbers a bit higher.

The final 2018-19 prediction for John Wall? Averages of 20.5 points, 11.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 3.5 turnovers per game

.A healthy John Wall is still good enough to continue his streak of All-Star game appearances as the second-best point guard in the Eastern Conference, basically making him the runnerup in a two-man race behind Kyrie Irving, but his All-NBA aspirations are more than likely in the rearview mirror.