Denver Nuggets: Can Juan Hernangomez re-emerge in year 3?

Denver Nuggets forward Juan Hernangomez followed up an intriguing rookie year with a forgettable sophomore campaign. Can he return to form in 2018-19?

Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone knew there was something wrong with second-year forward Juan Hernangomez before the doctors did.

Following an ugly loss in Denver’s opening game of the season, Malone rebuked Hernangomez, offering a startlingly prescient analysis of the Spanish forward’s struggles, “Right now, he doesn’t have that same energy and zap that he had last year.”

Five days later, when Hernangomez’s diagnosis broke, it seemed so painfully obvious. Hernangomez was sapped of energy. He lacked the vitality that had endeared him to fans, the motor that separated him as a prospect. You don’t just lose that at 22 when you’re fighting for a rotation spot. Of course he had mono.

Hernangomez returned to NBA action a little over two weeks later, well before his initially reported 4-6 weeks timeline had indicated he would. Hernangomez held down a rotation spot for the next two-plus weeks, but as people with mono are wont to do, he underperformed. He was all but superglued to the bench for the remainder of the season.

After a promising rookie year, Hernangomez regressed in just about every facet of the game as a sophomore. His box score stats per 100 possessions fell markedly in nearly every category. Notably, his 3-point percentage experienced colossal decline from 40.7 percent to 28 percent.

Yet it’s hard to hold his statistical decline against Hernangomez. Roughly 65 percent of his minutes on the season came from Nov. 19 through Dec. 4, when he was almost definitely still mono-ridden.

After that, he’d go weeks at a time between appearances. He didn’t really get a chance to rectify early season wrongs.

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Free from debilitating infection, Hernangomez has the opportunity to revive his “energy and zap,” to contribute to a Nuggets team with a major minutes vacuum following the departure of starting forward Wilson Chandler.

Can Hernangomez re-emerge and fill that void?

Essential to answering that question is identifying what exactly the void is.

Denver has a uniquely constructed roster in that virtually every single player is a natural power forward. It’s a bold strategy, and certainly inventive, but also probably not ideal from a basketball standpoint.

The same was true last year, but Denver had Chandler. While Chandler fit into the “natural power forward” group, he was close enough to an NBA wing that if you squinted and had pretty garbage vision and didn’t really know what a wing was, you’d be convinced he was a wing.

Chandler soaked up a ton of wing minutes — 2,346 of them, to be exact. So, the void’s on the wing, and it’s rather large.

Will Barton, slated as the team’s starting small forward, is apparently going to get a portion of those minutes. Torrey Craig, recently re-signed to an NBA deal after playing 2017-18 on a two-way contract with Denver, will likely get a disturbingly large share.

However, unless Barton truly plays all his minutes at the 3 or Craig plays an absolutely ungodly amount, there will be some remaining void in need of filling.

Meanwhile, at the 4, Hernangomez’s ideal position, Denver has Paul Millsap and Trey Lyles (and a handful of other guys). Right now, those two are simply better than Hernangomez, and they project to devour power forward minutes, leaving nothing more than scraps for the lower rungs of the depth chart.

If Hernangomez is to rejoin the rotation this year, it’ll be on the wing. So, the question shifts: Can Hernangomez play the wing?

In recent years, tweeners, guys stuck between two positions, have been destigmatized, and rightfully so. It’s possible to be good at basketball without fitting into the confines of what you “should” be.

There has, by my calculation, been a slight overcorrection, however. “Tweener” is now thought to be synonymous with versatility, when, in reality, being equally inept at two positions rather than one doesn’t make you versatile.

Defensively, I fear Hernangomez is the bad type of tweener. From a mobility standpoint, he is best suited to defend power forwards:

Against slower-footed, larger players, Hernangomez slides his feet adequately. He never looks quick, necessarily, but he does enough. When tasked with guarding smaller players, however, Hernangomez’s lack of lateral mobility is glaring:

Small forwards—even quicker 4s—blow by Hernangomez with relative ease. On the occasional switch, picking someone up in semi-transition, filling in where necessary, Hernangomez may be able to hold his own vs. quicker opponents, but his primary assignment should not be defending a small forward.

Where you run into problems with playing Hernangomez at all is that he’s not an ideal fit defending 4s either. His mobility is not exploited as a power forward, but his lack of awareness and strength are.

At the 4-spot, Hernangomez’s help responsibilities increase. As the second-largest man on the court, Hernangomez needs to offer some semblance of rim protection. His recognition, however, is poor:

Hernangomez’s frequent late rotations prevent him from establishing proper positioning when contesting at the rim. The result is abysmal rim protection. In 2016-17, when Hernangomez played more power forward and defended more shots at the rim, he allowed opponents to convert 68 percent of the time — a higher mark than guards, like barely-six-feet Eric Bledsoe and Kemba Walker (on similar attempts).

Defensively, Hernangomez is without a position right now. I’m liable to think awareness and strength are more likely to improve than mobility. Hernangomez is almost definitely a 4 long-term, but now, he’s neither, and that’s what matters for 2018-19.

On the other end, Hernangomez has a relatively limited package. He’s not much of a ball-handler. He’s a willing but unspectacular passer. As a jump shooter, he’s exclusively a catch-and-shoot option (156 of his 160 career 3-point attempts have been catch-and-shoots).

After two years, Hernangomez’s jumper, his only real offensive weapon, remains a question mark. He shot a great percentage as a rookie, equally atrocious as a sophomore.

To an extent, I’m willing to ignore the returns from year two:

During the two-week period when Hernangomez was in the Nuggets’ rotation last year, he attempted 28 3s of just 50 on the year. During those eight games, Hernangomez’s shots consistently fell short.

Consistent misses are good misses. Considering the context — he was probably still grappling with mono — the explanation seems logical. When he played, Hernangomez was not in basketball shape and did not have adequate energy, preventing him from generating enough power on his jumpers. That’s not a long-term concern.

What is a long-term concern is Hernangomez’s funky release point:

Hernangomez is a right-handed shooter who releases the ball on the left side of his face; he’s a less extreme Lonzo Ball. Hernangomez’s release point produces some pretty aggressive elbow flare, which adds an extra variable to an equation that, above all else, must be absent variance.

He’s prone to those dreaded left-right misses, and while I think he can be a good shooter despite his mechanics, I think they will prevent him from ever being great.

Hernangomez has his strengths. I expect his shooting to be a slight plus going forward. His motor runs perpetually and with ferocity (when he’s not stricken with mono). He’s a factor on the glass. He could theoretically become a passable defender.

Down the road, that’s probably an NBA player. It’s reasonable to think Hernangomez could be an effective combo forward in the mold of Jonas Jerebko, who’s had a long and successful NBA career.

It’s hard to see today’s iteration of Juan Hernangomez factoring into the Nuggets’ rotation, though, especially given the specific minutes void in need of filling. Hernangomez may eventually find his niche in the NBA, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening in 2018-19 with the Nuggets — even with his “energy and zap” restored.