Washington Wizards: It’s time to end the Ernie Grunfeld era
By Matt H
Wizards’ performance under Grunfeld
To start, let’s take a closer look at Ernie Grunfeld’s regular season and playoff record.
Quick caveat: An NBA team’s record can’t always be judged in a vacuum. This is because GMs frequently rely on various team building strategies that directly impact their yearly win/loss columns. Take for instance, the tanking strategy.
The goal of tanking is to be really bad in order to get the best shot at acquiring a high draft pick. The more high draft picks you have, the better the talent on your team, the more likely your record will improve. It can work but it takes years of losing and a bit of luck.
Recently, former Philadelphia 76ers GM Sam Hinkie squeezed the life out of this strategy and forced the league to finally address tanking, which is why we can no longer have nice things. Thanks Philly!
Another strategy is free agency. Rebuilding through free agency requires timing, cap space and luck in order to sign the best players on the open market. It can be done but it’s also unreliable. The Los Angeles Lakers, one of the league’s most storied franchises, are renowned for pursuing the best free agents, including this summer’s LeBron James sweepstakes.
It was also a forgone conclusion that Paul George and possibly another superstar were coming to L.A. with LeBron to form the next Lakers dynasty. However, that plan imploded and the Lakers ended up signing a bunch of players from the Island of Misfit Toys. Even the best teams can get it wrong.
Trades are a completely different animal. In order to pull off a successful trade, a team needs to have valuable assets that other teams covet like a stash of high draft picks or quality players signed to affordable contracts. Let’s just say Washington hasn’t been able to consistently rely on this strategy.
So how well have the Washington Wizards fared on the court?
Overall: 536 wins, 678 losses for a .442 win percentage. That’s just below average, which is exactly how I would describe the Ernie Grunfeld era.
But what about each season individually? I did explain that you can’t judge a team’s overall record in a vacuum. Perhaps some context is needed.
A regular season record generally falls into four main categories:
- Awful (less than 30 wins)
- Bad (30-41 wins)
- Average to Good (41-49 wins)
- Great (50+ wins)
Using these criteria, the Washington Wizards have muddled through six awful seasons, one bad season, eight average-to-good seasons and exactly ZERO great seasons. In a nutshell, the Wizards have been awful or mostly average bordering on good, but never great.
So which teams have experienced moments of greatness? For brevity’s sake, I narrowed it down to just the Eastern Conference.
Of the 15 teams in the East, 11 have eclipsed the 50+ win benchmark at least once. At the top, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics and Miami Heat led the way with eight, six and five great seasons, respectively. As it turns out, LeBron James is pretty good at basketball and Danny Ainge actually earned his tenure as the Celtics GM.
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Rounding out the rest of the Eastern Conference, the Philadelphia 76ers, a team most associated with “Trust the Process” have one 50+ win season in addition to the New York Knicks, who have been a NBA punchline for decades.
At the bottom? The remaining teams with zero 50+ win seasons are your very own Washington Wizards, accompanied by notable juggernauts such as the Brooklyn Nets, Milwaukee Bucks and Charlotte Hornets.
However, there is at least one difference between the Wizards and these bottom-dwellers. The Nets, Bucks and Hornets have all fired their GM at least once.
How about those eight seasons with an average to good record? Didn’t the Wizards make the playoffs? That’s pretty successful, right?
Yes, I will concede the point that the Washington Wizards have made the playoffs multiple times under Grunfeld but they have NEVER advanced past the second round.
Also, if you really think about it, the Atlanta Hawks made the playoffs 10 times and even reached the Eastern Conference Finals during this same time frame. And as we all know, when it comes to measuring yourself against the true powerhouses of the NBA, the first team that comes to mind is… the Atlanta Hawks.
OK, I get it. So regular season record may not be the best assessment for explaining why Ernie Grunfeld just signed an extension through the 2018-19 season.