Milwaukee Bucks: Donte DiVincenzo breakdown

The Milwaukee Bucks selected Donte DiVincenzo with the 17th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. Delving into the film and statistics he produced at Villanova, it’s hard to understand why.

With the 16th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, the Phoenix Suns nearly selected Donte DiVincenzo. The pick had already leaked on Twitter. It seemed official. Then it wasn’t.

Instead, the Suns opted for Texas Tech’s Zhaire Smith, who was immediately traded to the Philadelphia 76ers (along with a juicy unprotected Miami Heat first-rounder in 2021) for the rights to DiVincenzo’s college teammate, Mikal Bridges.

For the Milwaukee Bucks, that last-minute trade was something of a minor miracle. DiVincenzo was returned to the board after briefly appearing removed, and Milwaukee brass did not leave him there long:

The talking points in favor of DiVincenzo are obvious and have been belabored by his proponents. DiVincenzo’s a national champion. He was named NCAA Final Four Most Outstanding Player less than three months ago. He can jump out of the gym. He can rack up points in a hurry. He has fantastic nicknames. He’s fearless.

Throughout the pre-draft process, DiVincenzo was a consistent riser, and that made sense. His personality is magnetic. He’s a great athletic tester. His stroke looks gorgeous in a neutral setting.

DiVincenzo rise, however, never seemed justified based on the tape and statistics he produced at Villanova.

The Big Ragu served as a super sixth man with the Wildcats. He started just 10 games in 2017-18, but played over 29 minutes per game and averaged 13.4 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists. Most encouragingly for his NBA prospects, DiVincenzo shot 40.1 percent on 5.3 3-point attempts per game.

However, even some cursory investigation raises questions about DiVincenzo’s efficacy as a marksman. Namely, Donte’s free throw shooting is, at least, a yellow flag; DiVincenzo’s a career 70.5 percent free throw shooter. Dig deeper and you find more concerning indicators.

If you limit DiVincenzo’s 212 3-point attempts to the 152 taken from NBA range, his conversion rate falls off precipitously, from 40.1 percent to 35 percent. DiVincenzo wields less of a sniper and more of a blunderbuss.

Then there’s his shot diversity, or lack thereof. According to Synergy, DiVincenzo logged just 12 possessions last season as an off-screen shooter.

DiVincenzo shows potential as an off-movement shooter by the eye test, but it’s simply not something he did in college, and it’s something he’ll have to do well in a primarily off-ball role with the Bucks.

Donte certainly has a reputation as an elite spot-up shooter, but further examination indicates he’s nothing more than ordinary in that respect too:

None of this is to say DiVincenzo is a bad shooter, but he’s not elite, and he might not be good. In the context of his role, that’s a really big problem.

DiVincenzo projects to slot in as an off-ball guard with the Bucks. His offensive role will hinge on shooting off spot-ups, and with Mike Budenholzer architecting the offense, hopefully off movement. As of now, DiVincenzo is not good enough at either.

You might think I’m being unfair pegging DiVincenzo as an off-ball guard. To that, I’d say two words: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Eric Bledsoe would work, too). Bucks fans should know well the evils of a ball-dominant guard alongside the franchise superstar after a year with Bledsoe aboard.

In a more situation-independent sense, off-ball guard is the role most suited to DiVincenzo’s skill-set anyway.

DiVincenzo does have some point guard skills:

His vision is good, and I’ve been impressed with his unselfishness:

Donte is absolutely a capable passer. He won’t drop jaws like Trae Young or Luka Doncic. He’s not on the level of the draft’s next best lead guards in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Elie Okobo, but he’s solid.

The concern with DiVincenzo as an on-ball guard (outside of the fit with Giannis), is his ability to consistently generate pressure on the defense:

DiVincenzo is not a dynamic ball-handler, his first step is not explosive (despite his impressive two-foot leaping ability) and he lacks the slipperiness that makes someone like Gilgeous-Alexander impossible to keep out of the paint. This lack of potency on-ball translated to DiVincenzo attempting just 26.7 percent of his shots at the rim last year (22.6 percentile among wings).

DiVincenzo’s inability to get to the rim seriously inhibits his individual efficiency. More importantly, it precludes him from being an effective on-ball guard, as he’s unable to force help and make use of that solid vision to find open teammates. He can run some secondary pick-and-roll and create in transition, but even in a bench role, I don’t think an offense can be efficient with DiVincenzo as the primary ball-handler.

While some consider Donte a guard/wing hybrid, he’s strictly a guard in the NBA, and that’s because of his defense. I don’t want to misconstrue Donte’s defense as bad; it’s not. In college, I’d say it was quite good. I think it’ll be solid in the NBA:

On-ball, DiVincenzo impresses. He tries hard, fights through screens and slides his feet. Off-ball, he’s prone to bouts of spaciness and ball-watching, but DiVincenzo’s a solid team defender on the whole:

His NBA projection as a defender, however, worries me slightly. DiVincenzo’s intelligence isn’t going anywhere, but neither is this: at the combine, DiVincenzo measured in at 6’4.5” with a 6’6” wingspan. That’s strictly guard size.

I expect DiVincenzo to be a good guard defender. He tries too hard and is too technically sound to be a disaster, but his size will be a limiting factor. He’ll get killed on switches—opponents will shoot/finish over him with ease. He won’t fit into the more switch-heavy scheme that the lanky Bucks should be running next year.

DiVincenzo won’t be a negative defender in a vacuum, but he won’t produce much value, even if he can check his own position well.

Ultimately, value is what I keep coming back to when pondering DiVincenzo: how does he provide it?

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Donte’s realistic avenue to success is as an elite shooter and solid guard defender with some secondary creation abilty. If he gets there, how valuable is that player? That’s, give or take, Avery Bradley, who’s been traded twice in the past year and doesn’t exactly appear headed for a payday in unrestricted free agency. Bradley’s the very best of that archetype.

If the Bucks were intent on adding that archetype, Khyri Thomas was available. Thomas is a better on-ball defender, has better length and is a far more proven shooter. Lonnie Walker IV projects to fill a similar role but brings considerably more youth. Ditto for Josh Okogie.

Better yet, if the Bucks were looking for an archetype that has a clearer pathway to value, there were options. Kevin Huerter has a better chance to credibly defend wings and is a far superior and more versatile shooter. Elie Okobo has some legitimate on-ball equity and offers more versatility as a shooter. Jacob Evans boasts the same positives as a team defender but will defend the wing and has fewer question marks as a shooter.

The list goes on and on. Long enough, in fact, that I would not have selected DiVincenzo in the first round. DiVincenzo’s film is entirely unspectacular, his statiscal profile mediocre, his NBA role lacking value.

Next: Complete 2018 NBA Draft grades for all 30 teams

DiVincenzo isn’t terrible. If he shoots the ball at a high level from NBA range, he will be a solid rotation player. But hoping that the 17th pick shoots it above expectations to become a rotation player feels…uninspiring. In time, maybe the league is right on this one, maybe DiVincenzo’s fearlessness propels him to unforeseen heights, maybe Phoenix comes to regret that last-second about-face. I have my doubts.