Denver Nuggets: Thinking through Michael Porter Jr.

The Denver Nuggets made a splash in the 2018 NBA Draft, selecting Michael Porter Jr. With all the questions surrounding Porter’s health and game, how should we even approach analyzing the pick?

The concept of “falling” on draft night has never made sense to me. It implies that there’s no reason, no mechanism producing the “fall.” There is always a reason.

When the Denver Nuggets stopped Michael Porter Jr.’s “fall” with the 14th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, there was a reason. Thirteen teams had weighed the costs and benefits. Thirteen teams had considered the smooth-shooting forward out of Missouri. Thirteen teams had concluded that they could not justify picking him.

He didn’t “fall.” No one forgot about him. His one glaring weakness outweighed the immense positives that had propelled him to the top of draft boards for years.

On Nov. 10, 2017, two minutes into Porter’s college career, his “fall” started. Porter suffered a lower back injury, which required surgery and was, at the time, expected to end his season.

Porter unexpectedly returned four months after a microdiscectomy surgery, logging 51 minutes in Missouri’s lone games in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments.

I watched all 51 of those minutes. They weren’t pretty. Porter couldn’t jump or dribble. He had no lift on his shot. He was a disaster on defense. He didn’t look like a player you could draft, much less one who would be in contention for the top overall selection in the NBA Draft.

The mitigating factor was that Porter didn’t look healthy. He himself acknowledged that he was only around 70 percent healthy. Dragged down, in part by Porter’s struggles, Missouri lost both games, and its season and Porter’s college career ended before ever starting.

If you want to throw out the 51 minutes played by 70 percent version of Michael Porter, that’s fine with me. It doesn’t feel fair to knock a kid for producing terrible tape when the only reason he was on the floor was because he so desperately wanted to help his team.

But if you accept that the Michael Porter we saw briefly in March isn’t Michael Porter, you have to wonder where the real Michael Porter is, and if we’ll ever see him again.

This seems to be what teams were thinking on Thursday night: Michael Porter is great, but we don’t know if we’re ever going to get the real Michael Porter.

Immediately, that disqualified MPJ from going where those who are bullish on his talent had him pegged. Even Joel Embiid, a far superior and more proven talent with less concerning long-term injury questions, was a bit too uncertain for two teams in the 2014 NBA Draft.

That meant Porter was in play for the late lottery teams, and his agent, Mark Bartelstein, was putting in work:

We’ll never know if Denver was swayed by Bartelstein’s admirable efforts or if Tim Connelly and crew merely decided that the miniscule chance of the real Michael Porter returning was worth more than the expected value of Zhaire Smith or Kevin Huerter.

Either way, Porter’s in Denver now. With that, comes more questions:

The Action Network’s Matt Moore stressed that this was merely informed speculation and not the Nuggets’ stance. Of course, Moore’s speculation is informed and worth considering.

The possibility of Porter having a redshirt rookie year is, at least, on the table. That’s concerning. The Nuggets are trying to win now. They need wing help. More importantly, that’s probably not a great sign as to the status of Porter’s back.

Redshirt rookie years for top prospects are far from unprecedented. Embiid had two of them, while his fellow Philadelphia 76ers star, Ben Simmons, had one. Those two are proven building blocks now.

There’s also Harry Giles, who the Sacramento Kings selected 20th last year after a massively disappointing and injury-plagued year at Duke. Much like Porter, Giles was considered a candidate for the first overall pick entering his freshman year.

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Giles, of course, is the other end of the spectrum. He did not play during his rookie year, and while the Kings appear optimistic, he has not played a full season of organized basketball in four years. In all likelihood, Giles will never produce much value for the Kings.

If Porter misses all of 2018-19, it would be hard to spin that in a positive light (though the Nuggets would deserve immense credit for their long-term view and patience). However, there is precedent for redshirt years working out.

Ultimately, though, there is no certainty. We do not know if Porter will play in 2018-19. We do not know if he will be good if he does play. We do not even know if he will fit well in Denver if he does play and is good.

The NBA Draft is always clouded in uncertainty. We know very little. We project and infer and think we know what we’re talking about. Usually, we don’t.

That uncertainty is magnified tenfold with Porter. Analyze the pick? I can’t.

I don’t have access to Porter’s medicals, and if I did, I wouldn’t know what they meant. I don’t how good he good he is at basketball, because he hasn’t played a meaningful game against meaningful competition…ever. I don’t know what position he plays (does he have the movement skills to survive on the wing or is he strictly a big?).

As someone who’s supposed to analyze basketball, this kills me. I have no idea what to think of Michael Porter Jr. That was true before he was on the Nuggets. It’s more true now.

Michael Porter Jr. did not “fall” to the Nuggets. Thirteen teams passed on him. We have some idea why, but really, we know nothing.

Next: Complete 2018 NBA Draft grades for all 30 teams

If we’re being honest and responsible and measured, we can’t believe anything about Porter. We just have to wait. We must be patient. We’re going to be thinking through this one for a long time.