2018 NBA Draft: Top 60 big board, Part 3

Tier 7

My seventh and final tier on my big board is almost exclusively made up of high-upside prospects. Many of these prospects have boom-or-bust potential, which has a lot less risk in the second round.

There are a few high-ceiling prospects thrown in, but for the most part these are the prospects that need serious development. If they obtain this proper development though, they could be special players. This is the part of my big board where I likely miss on a few prospects that pan out, but I do value safety probably a little too much when making my boards.

43. Anfernee Simons, SG/PG — USA 

Simons took a relatively different route to the NBA compared to most. After attending IMG Academy for a prep year, Simons elected to abolish his collegiate eligibility and jump straight to the pros.

I had the opportunity to watch one of Simons’ workouts live leading up to the draft. He was purely astonishing compared to the other likely six NBA Draft selections at the Impact Basketball Pro Day. He really stands out athletically and has quality length with a 6’9″ wingspan. Simons has more of a combo guard skill-set than a true lead guard. He appears to be working on his shot and ball-handling, which are the two particular offensive areas where he needs to improve.

On the defensive side of the ball I am not sure what to make of Simons. He appears to have the ability to stay in front of lead guards, but I was unable to see tape of him guarding anyone who really stood out as a surefire NBA player to me. Simons is a player that needs to be coddled throughout his first year or two in the league. Even though a smaller off-guard is not really what the NBA is trending towards, Simons has the talent to pull it off.

44. Jarred Vanderbilt, C — Kentucky 

I am actually a huge Jarred Vanderbilt fan. He may have been higher on my board if it was not for an injury-plagued freshman campaign at Kentucky. He has obvious talent and contains a very unique skill that is rarely seen in a big man.

Vanderbilt played limited minutes this year at Kentucky, but when he did play there was no questioning Kentucky was better with him in their lineup. Vanderbilt is one of the better rebounders in the class. His ability to handle the ball makes him extremely unique he is an immediate grab-and-go threat as soon as the ball touches his hands. Vanderbilt’s shooting is disastrous though. He displayed little touch, even from the free throw line.

Vanderbilt did not offer much rim protection defensively and his limited minutes have me questioning his overall defense as well. He should be able to defend in space better than almost any big man you could find in the second round, but that is not saying much. Vanderbilt’s strong motor, playmaking ability and rebounding make him a very different prospect that will have value in his own special way.

45. Trevon Duval, PG — Duke 

Trevon Duval came into the season as an odds-on favorite to be one of the best point guards in the class. After an underwhelming performance throughout his entire freshman season, Duval will likely find himself in the second round.

Duval’s overall appeal still comes from him being an elite athlete at the lead guard position. He’s an explosive leaper that can finish above the rim, with blazing speed. He also may be one of the better ball-handlers in the class. The rest of Duval’s game is a mystery. His jump shot is a significant downside to his game. It features a very slow release that rarely ever goes in. Quick decision-making is also a main concern for Duval, and that is not a concern a primary ball-handler should have.

On the defensive side of the ball, Duval does not offer much as a team defender, but no one at Duke really did last season. He has the lateral ability to stay with plays on the perimeter, but does not react well to his matchup’s initial movements. Duval is a major-upside play and while he may be one of the better athletes in the class, his jump shot is just too far away for me to confidently project him to a major role.

46. Hamidou Diallo, SG — Kentucky 

After electing to play his freshman season at Kentucky, Diallo skipped last year’s NBA Draft. He now finds himself as almost a guaranteed second-rounder instead of a fringe first round prospect.

Diallo does not have nearly the amount of offensive skill at this stage of his career to match his elite athleticism. He should thrive in open court situations running out in transition, but outside of that he is not a good enough ball-handler, shooter or passer to shoulder NBA minutes immediately.

Diallo has all the tools to be a high quality defender. He had a great end of the season run as a defender when he was much more engaged on that end of the floor. He is a spotty team defender, but still has room to grow in that area. Diallo has the athleticism to be a quality defensive player. With a developing game, where will his upside land him in a few years? I don’t think anybody knows.

47. George King, SG/SF — Colorado 

George King was a late riser after a strong Portsmouth Invitational and NBA Draft Combine performances. Even though King is a four-year senior at Colorado, I think he still has some upside potential despite being a collegiate veteran.

King has a little bit of an ability to put the ball on the floor and attack the rim. Do not expect him to make any passing reads on the move while driving, which is still an area of improvement. He shot the ball well this year from the 3-point line on a larger sample size and has shot it well throughout his past three years at Colorado.

King’s on-ball defense is phenomenal. He has the quick-twitch fibers that every elite NBA defender has. He opens his hips up well to recover back onto his man, and is quite quick laterally. At 6’6″, King as the length and willingness to muscle up with bigs. King will be a quality NBA defender from day one, but will his offensive struggles ever become serviceable enough to carve out a permanent role in the NBA?

48. Chimezie Metu, C — USC

Metu is another player who is no stranger to being on the NBA Draft radar. He may have the most  talent out of any big in the second round. He also may be one of the most modern bigs at this point in the draft.

Metu stands at 6’9.5″ with a 7’0.5″ wingspan. Metu is slightly undersized for a center while not quite having standout length. He moves very well for a big man and could be a lob threat finishing at the rim and running the floor when he chooses to take advantage of his motor. Metu has shown some impressive development in his perimeter game throughout his career.

On the defensive end, Metu is a quality leaper and was once viewed as a quality rim protecting prospect even though he was not this season. He has the athletic ability to improve as a defender in space, but I would not call it a strength at this point in his career. Metu finds himself with the skill-set of an NBA 5. His outside shooting is a little to streaky to confidently project it to improve. He also has a very slight frame and is not a very good finisher through contact. Metu could find a role as an offensive-minded backup big.

49. Moritz Wagner, C — Michigan 

Wagner probably should have stayed in the draft last season if he was serious about his draft positioning. Mo still has value in the NBA, but on one side of the ball.

Moritz Wagner really does one thing, but does it very well and that’s shoot the spot-up 3. An improving handle has also added the ability for Wagner to attack a close-out, even though he is not fleet of foot. Outside of floor-spacing Wagner really does nothing else of value. He still needs to add some more strength onto his frame to be a consistent finisher at the rim.

Wagner really will struggle to find his footing defensively in the NBA. He may be one of the worst bigs in the class when it comes to being switchable in pick-and-roll settings. Wagner tries his best to get back on hard hedges, he just is not quick enough to do it effectively. He really does not offer much rim protection either. There is definitely a spot for a near seven-footer who can shoot like a wing. Unfortunately, that spot would have a specific setting that would likely be just too hard for Wagner to come by.

50. Issuf Sanon, SG/PG — Ukraine 

I am going to have to go back and check to see if two Ukrainians being selected in the NBA Draft is a record. Sanon played for Petrol Olimpija of the Slovenian and Adriatic Leagues. Sanon mainly played a bench role throughout the season, but has a tremendous amount of potential.

I caught two of Sanon’s games from the NBA Global Camp in Trevisio and I was very impressed. He has worked hard to improve his handle throughout the pre-draft process. He also has a fair amount of shake to his game and can create decent separation. He shoots well off the catch as well, but needs to work on his pull-up shooting mechanics. Sanon also wants to project as a combo guard or a taller lead guard, where he will have to drastically improve his decision-making if he wants to do that.

On the defensive side of the ball, Sanon was fine throughout the season. He has shown the ability to get down in a stance and defend aggressively with quick guards and really give them trouble. Sanon is definitely prone to mental lapses like many other raw young players. I like Sanon as a stash option at only 18 years old. With four years of development, I really think he could eventually have an NBA role.

51. Rodions Kurucs, PF/SF — Latvia 

Kurucs spent most of last playing for Barcelona’s LEB Gold team, which is like another minor league developmental team to the EuroLeague powerhouse.

Kurucs’ main offensive value is shooting. He is an exceptional shooter off of movement and off the catch, especially for his size. He has the ability to put the ball on the floor, but does not have much finishing ability if he gets all the way to the rim with his frail stature. Kurucs is a fair athlete with an above-average first step and may be tough for some NBA 4s to figure out.

At 6’10” Kurcus is nowhere near physically ready to guard any NBA 4-man. He may not be quite quick enough laterally to be able to defend wings, but could find one to hide on. Overall, Kurucs is still a little too raw of a talent for my liking at 20 years old. He is a worthy stash option and has the same birthday as me though, so I will be rooting for him.

52. Vincent Edwards, SF/PF — Purdue 

After a strong career at Purdue, Vince Edwards is finally getting the recognition he deserves as a player. His steady improvement throughout his career at Purdue has made him a very real draft prospect.

Edwards has great size for a wing and a small-ball 4. He has the ability to play both, but I think he is better suited as a small-ball 4 with his overall strength and length. He is a solid shooter that should not thrive, but should be a league-average athlete. Edwards also has the ability to put the ball on the floor and make smart decisions with it.

He’s a solid defender as well, both on and off the ball, using his strength and quick reaction time to thrive on-ball and his high IQ to do the same off the ball. I feel like I may be exaggerating Edwards’ strengths more than any prospect. His biggest weaknesses is his age and how he is probably the best player to his capabilities right now with no athletic improvement and little skill improvement. Edwards is a solid all-around prospect, but will what he is now be enough for an NBA role?

53. D.J. Hogg, PF — Texas A&M

Much like his teammate Robert Williams, Hogg was played out of position in a purely toxic situation at Texas A&M. However, this toxic situation may have helped his NBA appeal.

Hogg stands at 6’9″ and honestly I do not think that listing does him much justice. His appeal comes from the size and shooting combination. Hogg is much more than a shooter though; he is an all-around scorer on the offensive end of the floor. The only real question mark is how well he can finish at the rim, along with how well he can read the floor when penetrating into the lane.

Hogg appears to not really stand out in the length department. He could have a tough time finding somebody to guard. He may not be able to handle stronger 4s, and also may not be able to handle quicker wings. Do not be surprised if Hogg ends up sticking in the NBA, but I would be a little concerned about his defensive ability, along with his overall athletic ability.

54. Grayson Allen, SG — Duke 

Allen really has been on NBA radars since the Final Four of his freshman year. That was the highest Allen’s stock ever got and will continue to be the highest it ever will be.

Allen did some great things at Duke this year. He improved as a decision-maker and a playmaker, but still lacks the ability to blow by even the least athletic college defenders. He shoots it well off the catch as well, but it takes him a little to long to gather his shot attempt off of movement.

Allen is a mess defensively. His initial reaction time is incredibly slow, he is not a very good team defender and he has not been one throughout his four years at Duke. There is definitely a chance for Allen to carve out a role purely as a spot-up shooter, but he needs to make massive strides defensively in limited time.

55. Raymond Spalding, C — Louisville 

Spalding is a player with the athletic tools and length that many big men would die for. Sadly, Spalding has yet to complete his skill level to go along with all of his tools.

I think Spalding is a player that is better suited to the NBA game. The level of floor-spacing should give him a role as a quality rim-runner with his overall length and athletic ability. The only problem with this offensive role is that he is incredibly skinny. That strength is going to take years for him to develop.

Spalding’s incredible length never amounted to him developing as a rim protector.  While his overall rim rotations and team defense level are pretty poor since he does not have a particularly high IQ. Spalding has improved his natural touch throughout his career at Louisville and if he continues to develop his jump shot, rim protection instincts and strength, he could be a solid NBA player.

56. Kenrich Williams, PF/SF — TCU 

I am very happy for Kenrich Williams. He is an awesome story as a former JUCO transfer now coming full circle and getting a chance to chase his NBA dream. Unfortunately I just do not see the appeal.

Williams plays with a very high basketball IQ and that is where his appeal comes from — likely transitioning into a small-ball 4 role. He has some handling equity and is a very unselfish player that will make the right pass and take care of the basketball when penetrating.

His jump shot is harder to project to me, despite the percentages. His misses were very ugly at the NBA Draft Combine, but he did make a few. That is something that will change his overall outcome as a player. He is a smart team defender that will likely be able to transition into any system. Much like Vince Edwards at his age, it is hard to project much development from his first two years.

57. Devonte’ Graham, PG — Kansas 

Graham enjoyed a tremendous NBA career at Kansas. Now he looks to shift his high-usage and minute roles into a quality backup point guard at the NBA level.

Graham is an exceptional shooter that already has NBA range. He has a little bit of shake and should be able to get into the lane at the NBA level. I think I am a little lower on him than most as an overall playmaker though. He also will have to be tremendous defensively, only being limited to guarding one position. I would not be surprised if Graham carves out a role for himself at the next level in spot minutes as a backup lead guard.

58. Arnoldas Kulboka, PF — Lithuania 

Kulboka played last season for Capo D’Orlando on a loan from Brose Bamberg in the top Italian League. He will look to be the next up in a long line of Lithuanian big men in the NBA.

Kulboka is a fantastic shooter both off the catch and movement. At his size, that combination holds some offensive value at the NBA level. He does not really stand out anywhere else on either side of the floor. He’s unable to put the ball on the floor or defend at a quality level. Look for Kulboka to be a stash play in the late second round as teams will look for him to develop his handling skills and try to gain some more athleticism.

59. Billy Preston, PF — Kansas 

Preston was one of my personal favorites in the heading into the college season. Sadly, he was deemed ineligible and did not play a single regular season game at Kansas.

This forced Preston to play a few games at BC Igokea in the Adriatic League, where he underwhelmed in limited minutes. Preston is an immediate athletic fit in the NBA game with guard-like perimeter skills with the ball at 6’10”. Preston will need to develop his jump shot, but do not be surprised if he ends up being a quality NBA player if a team has a strong developmental plan in place for him.

60. Kostas Antetokounmpo, PF — Dayton 

Kostas has the size that mirrors his brother Giannis.

Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft - Final edition

Antetokounmpo is a major upside play who needs major work on his offensive game, but is a quality athlete, even in the NBA. He also needs to get much stronger, but he is in the same boat as Preston. If he is developed properly, the third Antetokounmpo brother should eventually carve out an NBA role for himself.