2018 NBA Draft: Top 60 big board, Part 3

Tier 6

Tier 6 is where my confidence in these prospects takes a significant drop. Many of these players have a few red flags in their game, just were not draft ready or appear to not be able to handle the speed and superb athletes the NBA has to offer.

33. Chandler Hutchison, SF/PF — Boise State 

Hutchison was a prospect that I was much higher on early in the year. He gained a ton of steam early on as this year’s potential Kyle Kuzma.

There’s plenty to like about Hutchison. He has great size, solid handle for that size and really has shown significant improvement since he began his career at Boise State. Hutchison is listed at 6’7″ and while I prefer him at the 4, there will be teams that want him to play the wing position.

Much like almost everyone else in the NBA today, Hutchison needs to shoot efficiently no matter where he plays on the court. I’m probably a little lower on his athletic ability than others as well. This makes me less confident in projecting how well he can get to and finish at the rim.

Defensively, I do not think Hutchison will be a liability if he is relied up to guard 4s. I do not think he has the lateral quickness to be able to handle athletic wings on the perimeter. However, he should be a fairly easy player to hide given his overall size. The best way to describe Hutchison as a prospect is what people thought Kevin Knox would be this season. The biggest difference is that Knox is 18 and still has much more time to develop, but Hutchison does have upside of his own at a relatively old draft age.

34. Shake Milton, SG — SMU 

Shake Milton has been on NBA Draft radars for awhile now. Standing at 6’6″ with a 7’0″ wingspan, Milton has elite length for a wing. He also enjoyed another tremendous season at SMU.

Milton suffers from Landry Shamet syndrome. I was very high on both at one point in the college basketball season. Then they had rather disappointing NBA Draft Combine appearances where both projected combo guards seem to have little self creation value. Even though Milton had a poor shooting performance at the combine, I am not worried about his shot at all. He shot over 40 percent from the 3-point line in all three of his years at SMU.

Milton always projected as a average defender. He has the elite length that gives him plenty of positional versatility, but does not have the athletic feet necessary to thrive on the defensive end of the floor. His smart team defense should help, but is not a major outlier to put him over the hump as even a slightly above-average defender. Milton’s value comes from his phenomenal shooting ability; I’m afraid that is the only valuable trait in his game. He still has plenty of value if he is paired with multiple ball-handlers.

35. Omari Spellman, C — Villanova 

Much like his teammate Donte DiVincenzo, Spellman piggybacked off a strong NCAA Tournament run to enter his name in the draft. I would have liked to see another year of the Villanova big man, but he has certainly made his case as a legitimate NBA prospect.

Spellman may be the most modern offensive big in the draft outside of the top eight. He shoots the ball well from the 3-point line and can put it on the floor as well. He’s a very perimeter-oriented center that would thrive in the ball screen game with the strength to finish at the rim. Unfortunately, that strength is also made up of the second-highest body fat percentage at the combine. While Spellman has made tremendous strides improving his body in his two years at Villanova, he still has work to do.

Defensively, Spellman has good feet on the perimeter and defending in space. He moves a litlle awkwardly for my liking in that area though. He will not provide much rim protection and may be one of the worst in that area in the class. Overall, Spellman is still a very good prospect that can provide outside shooting, some defensive equity on the perimeter and a high IQ as an off-ball defender. He is easily one of the top candidates to outplay his ranking.

36. Isaac Bonga, SF/PG — Germany 

Bonga played most of the year with the Frankfurt Skyliners of the Bundesliga Basketball League in Germany, sharing time between the top league and their Pro B team, which is almost like a minor league affiliate.

Bonga’s overall offensive ability is very intriguing. Standing at 6’8″ with a 7’0″ wingspan, Bonga spends most of his time as the teams primary ball-handler. He is one of the youngest prospects in his class, and his vision at his age is tremendous. It would be nice if his decision-making and reaction time on his passes was a little faster, but that should improve with age. The main concern with Bonga is his jump shot, where he has a very slow and robotic release. It takes a while for him to get it off and does not look very fluid.

Bonga has tremendous potential to become an extremely versatile defender. With added strength, he could potential guard four positions at the next level. You can actually see him mainly play the 5 in Pro B and guard the 5 as well. Bonga is a tremendous stash option in the early second round. He is not a very explosive leaper and almost exclusively finishes below the rim, which is one of my main concerns along with his jump shot. However, at 18 years old, expect significant development from Bonga by the time he finally reaches the NBA.

37. Aaron Holiday, PG — UCLA

Judging by where Aaron Holiday ranks on intel-based mock drafts, he will be off the board in the middle of the first round. While I can see the appeal Holiday brings, I am not buying into it.

Holiday’s offensive equity comes strictly from his shooting ability. He has range well beyond the NBA 3-point line. He also may be the best shooter off of movement out of any of the point guards in this class on a large sample size. It is no secret Holiday can shoot it well in all three facets that you want out of an NBA player. I am not high on any of his secondary offensive skills though.

On the other side of the ball, Holiday’s size really hinders any kind of defensive value. He was a good defender in college, but will likely struggle against much faster NBA lead guards. He will have to guard lead guards and that is going to be a problem. Overall, Holiday’s decision-making or athletic ability just does not scream surefire NBA player despite league opinions. He is definitely a player to look at in the second round as a quality shooter and hope to develop him into a quality secondary ball handler.

38. Kevin Hervey, PF — UT-Arlington 

Kevin Hervey likely will not be selected until the end of the second round due to a series of injuries. I like to think on the bright side though and project Hervey as a healthy player for the rest of his career.

Hervey has been a standout at UT-Arlington for three years now. Watching him play other Sun Belt schools is just truly cheating. He has a strong frame and solid size for a 4-man in today’s NBA at 6’7.75″. Hervey is a pure scorer offensively that can put the ball on the floor, finish through contact and has a smooth midrange game. His 7’3″ wingspan could give him some small-ball 5 equity offensively as well if that is what your team is looking for.

Defensively, Hervey moves his feet well on the perimeter. He does not offer much in terms of rim protection or team defense though. Hervey’s future success should be determined by whether he can stay healthy or not. If he is in good health throughout the rest of his career, Hervey has tremendous value late in the second round.

39. Gary Trent Jr., SG — Duke 

The son of the former Shaq of the MAC, Trent Jr. will look to duplicate his dad’s success as a long time NBA player. Trent had a very limited role at Duke, which he grew into and had a strong showing in, especially later in the season. His limited role may have helped his draft stock more than it hurt it.

Trent is one of the better shooters in a class loaded with quality shooting. He moves exceptionally without the ball, shoots well off the catch and has great touch in his midrange game. He seemed to show more handling equity at the combine working off of ball screens, but I would not project that as a major role at any point in his NBA career.

Unfortunately, Trent is undersized for the wing position and does not have the quickness laterally or quick reaction time to guard lead guards. He may struggle defending larger wings as well. Trent could amount to a high-volume bench shooter if he is able to over his shortcomings on the defensive side of the ball.

40. Jerome Robinson, SG — Boston College 

There is absolutely no chance in the world Jerome Robinson falls into the second round. He has been fortunate enough to gain a late draft season push at the perfect time. Robinson even received a green room invite to the NBA Draft, which almost ensures he will be a late first round selection at the worst.

Robinson has solid size at his position at 6’5″ with a 7’2″ wingspan. He possesses quality burst and can knock down tough shots. I think the people that project him as a combo guard really have to take a step back and look hard at his decision-making and reaction time as a passer. That’s likely part of the appeal, but I am not comfortable projecting Robinson in a high-usage creation role where he will be forced to make decisions in less than a second.

Robinson really has little defensive equity as a prospect. Again, he has the size to defend multiple positions, but did not defend any of them well in college. I just do not see a player with high-usage equity and defensive ability to be able to find a long-term spot. There is definitely a chance to improve on either one or both of those areas though.

41. Svi Mykhailiuk, SG — Kansas 

I am MUCH higher on Svi than just about anyone I know. I am totally okay with it as well. The 21-year-old Ukrainian wing has been on draft radars since he was 18. While he may not have the value he once held 2-3 years ago, he still has NBA equity and is worthy of a draft selection.

Svi was an absolute knockdown shooter off the catch this season at Kansas, shooting a jaw-dropping 44 percent from the 3-point line on over six attempts per game. He has phenomenal height for a wing at 6’8″ even though he has a negative wingspan. While Svi did improve on all of his secondary offensive skills at Kansas his only real equity in the NBA comes from his spot-up shooting. If he can improve shooting off of movement and attack a close-out for a mid-range pull up, that would be even better.

Defensively, I thought Svi improved throughout his time at Kansas as well. I still do not think he should even project as an average NBA defender. Similarly to Jerome Robinson, Svi does not defend, which is something you need out of your wings in today’s game. If he improves on that end, I think he is a good enough shooter to find a home in the league.

42. Jevon Carter, PG — West Virginia 

Carter’s real claim to fame in his draft stock probably came when he was pegged as the “Trae Young Slayer” after his matchup against the lottery point guard. Outside of that game though, Carter was impressive throughout the season at West Virginia.

Carter is going to be an extremely fit-dependent player on the offensive side of the ball. You are not going to want Carter to have relatively high usage. He does have the ability to get into the lane, but an undersized lead guard that does not create significant separation should be the type offensive player that will not take on a bulk of a teams handling duties. With that being said, Carter was a very consistent 3-point shooter and should be able to knock down 3s at a reasonable rate off the catch.

Carter’s almost entire value as a prospect comes defensively. He is a one-position defender, but is the best point-of-attack perimeter defender in this class among fellow lead guards by a wide margin. Carter was picking up his matchup full court at the combine. Nobody has matched his level of defensive intensity this season. He also can create turnovers for your team with exceptionally quick reaction time with his hands. Carter’s floor as a spot minute energizer and relatively no ceiling as an experienced college veteran is what’s holding him back from a higher ranking.