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Denver Nuggets: Evaluating the cost of trading up in the 2018 NBA Draft

By Max Carlin

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 16: Gary Harris #14 of the Denver Nuggets waves to the crowd during the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery at the New York Hilton in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 16: Gary Harris #14 of the Denver Nuggets waves to the crowd during the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery at the New York Hilton in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Looking back at recent history, we can discern what it would cost for the Denver Nuggets to move up from 14th in the 2018 NBA Draft to select a wing of the future.

The 2018 NBA Draft is just a few days away. Armed with the 14th overall selection, the Denver Nuggets will have a bevy of options, some better than others.

At pick No. 14, however, some of the best options might already be off the table, namely the draft’s big-name wings, Mikal Bridges and Miles Bridges.

As constructed, the Nuggets’ roster is imbalanced and in need of long-term stabilization. They have guards and big men galore, but organizational depth at the wing position is nonexistent.

The issue with this draft is that after Mikal and Miles, the wing depth falls off pretty markedly. There are intriguing players, like Zhaire Smith and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but they’re far more wing-adjacent than wing. Denver needs a real wing.

If the Nuggets are set on adding a real wing, the only option might be trading up to snag one of the Bridges.

I recently examined previous salary dumps in an attempt to discern the cost of dumping salary. In that case, history was a bit murky. Mercifully, that’s not so in this instance.

In three of the last four NBA Drafts, there have been trades analogous to the jump the Nuggets would have to undertake:

  • In 2014, the Nuggets surrendered the 11th pick to the Chicago Bulls for the 16th and 19th
  • In 2016, the Phoenix Suns acquired the eighth pick from the Sacramento Kings for the 13th and 28th picks, along with a 2020 second round pick and the rights to Bogdan Bogdanovic.
  • In 2017, the Portland Trail Blazers sent the 15th and 20th picks to Sacramento for the 10th overall selection.

Unfortunately for the Nuggets, the going rate is clear: two firsts for a five-slot jump.

In the 2018 NBA Draft, the Nuggets own the 14th and 43rd selections — one first, not the requisite two. If the Nuggets were to trade up, they’d either have to acquire another first to send to a team in the 8-10 range or offer some sort of substitute.

That substitute could be anything, from a young player like Juan Hernangomez or Malik Beasley, to a future first. Now, maybe a team out there is absolutely enamored with Hernangomez, but far more likely is that moving up would cost the Nuggets their selection in next year’s first round.

Whether that’s a worthwhile trade-off, I’m not sure, but if the Nuggets think one of the Bridges could be the franchise’s much-needed, long-term answer on the wing, it’d be hard to fault them for giving up whatever it takes.

Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft - Final edition

The 2018 NBA Draft is sure to bring chaos and excitement. For the Denver Nuggets it will be an invaluable opportunity to finally add the piece on the wing the team so desperately needs. But with this draft’s talent distribution, the Nuggets may have no choice but to trade up from their 14th pick to secure one of the coveted wings, and that would undoubtedly be a costly move.

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