2018 NBA Draft: Top 60 big board, Part 1

Tier 2

My second tier consists of six prospects. These are all prospects that I feel have the potential to become either the best or second-best players in their class. While many of these players will make an immediate impact, all of them will need time to reach both their median and potential ceiling outcomes as prospects.

3. Jaren Jackson Jr., C — Michigan State 

The freshman big man out of Michigan State emerged as their best overall prospect, and gained quite the cult following while doing so. Jackson measures out at 6’11” with a 7’4″ wingspan, and projects to be everything an NBA team would ever want out of a defensive-minded big man.

While Jackson’s value is on the defensive end, his offensive value is holding me back from slotting him in the first tier. Jackson is a tremendous passer for a big. He sees the floor very well and can make quick decisions on the move. He even showed some handling prowess later in the season.

Realistically though, that handling probably will not mean much unless he shoots it at a high rate. That’s the ultimate red flag for me. Even though Jackson shot a high percentage from 3-point range at Michigan State, his jump shot does not contain ideal shooting mechanics. It seems wildly difficult to have confidence in his low release push shot.

Defensively, Jackson projects as by far the most modern big man in this class. His combination of rim protection and being able to defend like a wing on the perimeter contribute to Jackson standing in a class of his own in terms of defensive value. If Jackson can shoot at a high rate and eventually draw a hard close-out that completely changes  his entire value as a prospect, and we could be talking about one of the better two way prospects in the class.

4. Mohamed Bamba, C — Texas 

I have fallen for Mohamed Bamba as a prospect and I have fallen hard, mainly because of people raving about him in interviews. His overall intelligence as a person while adding in the “it” factor that captures everyone around you is exactly what a team is looking for in a high-upside draft selection.

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Expect Bamba to be very raw from his rookie debut offensively and maybe throughout his first two seasons. His slight frame was not even made for college offensive success, especially NBA success. Once Bamba does add strength, he could be a very unique offensive weapon.

A pick-and-roll rim-runner with Bamba’s overall length standing at seven feet tall with a 7’10” wingspan would be a scary sight. Bamba has also continued to work on his 3-point jump shot, which he flashed from deep at Texas. If he develops that part of his game as well, he will be a tough player to match up against for opposing teams defensively.

Defensively, Bamba is the best rim protector in his class. He times his blocks beautifully, can reject shots with either hand, reach up for shots that no other player can deny and contest at the rim very fundamentally, keeping his hands straight up and going up with verticality. Where many people come down on Mo Bamba is his defending in space.

While he does not move his feet well with guards on the perimeter, he has the overall length to recover on any guard that blows past him. Bamba will try to fit into a mold similar to Clint Capela, only with a jump shot. The scary thing is that could become reality, but the scarier thing is that it could be the furthest thing from the truth as well if he is not developed properly.

5. Wendell Carter Jr., C — Duke 

I jostled with the idea of having Wendell Carter Jr. in the top five, and ultimately decided he is just too valuable of a player to rank any lower. While hiding in the shadow of Marvin Bagley III, Carter was the more impressive big in terms of future NBA traits.

Offensively, Carter has a very polarizing skill-set, even though it may not be the most eye-catching. He works well out of the high- and low-post areas as a scorer. He flashed the ability to shoot a consistent 3-point shot eventually in his game, and be an impressive offensive rebounder.

Where Carter really stands out offensively is his playmaking ability. This trait is undervalued and unlike any other big man in this class. Carter will immediately make an impact passing on the move when rolling out of the pick-and-roll, along with being able to play make out of the pick-and-roll and make great decisions out of the high post and in handoff situations.

Defensively, Carter adds value as a rim protector, being able to be a quality team defender, making great rim-running rotations. I think he projects to have more switchability than he gets credit for, while also adding value recovering on hedges if his team elects to fight through ball screens. Carter is an immediate starter because of his incredibly high floor and basketball IQ. His statistical and athletic traits mirror Al Horford. Even though I hate player comparisons, this is the type of archetype that Carter will look to flourish in.

6. Marvin Bagley III, PF/C — Duke 

Marvin Bagley is certainly a player that will stand out in individual workouts with his elite athletic ability. Unfortunately, I have soured on the the first overall 2017 high school recruit. However, he still has a tremendous amount of a upside as a player.

While at Duke this season, Bagley was easily the most productive player on the floor. He’s a double-double machine with unique speed in the open court for his size and a second jump more explosive than anyone in college basketball. While Bagley did flash perimeter skill offensively this season, he was more of a hustle point player, with a lot of his points coming off put-backs, cuts to the hoop or running the floor in transition. Bagley’s high motor is awesome and it’s one of the reasons he is still a top-five player, but a more refined scoring game would make me feel better about his offensive outcome, even just a right-handed finish every now and then would’ve been nice.

Defensively, Bagley struggled pretty much all season. While he does appear to have decent speed on the perimeter to defend in space, he underperformed in that area early on in the season. He also did not provide much rim protection either. Since Duke was an all-around horrific defensive team, they shifted into a zone defense and Bagley was completely lost.

Again, because of his athletic ability I think Bagley will be fine defensively. Just do not expect him to be a major plus on that end of the floor. His overall motor and rebounding ability should translate to immediate eye-popping box score numbers, while his overall inefficiency and defensive struggles likely will not translate to immediate winning basketball. His offensive game is still a work in progress with several possible outcomes to be molded into a very extraordinary offensive talent.

7. Trae Young, PG — Oklahoma 

We finally come to our first and only guard in the second tier. Trae Young was easily the most productive in college this year. While I envision the same playmaking appeal from Young, do not anticipate him to provide an immediate, high-volume scoring punch.

Offensively, Trae Young is easily the best playmaker and passer in the class. His ability to get into the lane, make advanced reads, quick decisions and on-the-money outlet passes in transition should all translate to a high volume of assists in the NBA.

Scoring-wise, Trae is a phenomenal shooter that can pull up from anywhere on the floor, and shoot off the catch as well. I would like to see Trae settle for his jump shot a little less in the future and probably will not have to with better teammates. Unfortunately, he just does not have the same craft to finish once he gets into the lane and at the rim like some of the greats he is outrageously compared to.

Defensively, Young will likely always be a liability off the ball, even though he probably will not be outlandishly bad as a defender. He did show some signs of more intense defense as the season went on, and is a smart off-ball defender with a high IQ.

His size will likely prevent him from hiding on defense though, and he will have to go head-to-head with some of the best point guards in the league from day one. Young’s offensive firepower and ability to run an offense is just too great to be down on him as a prospect despite his defensive struggles. If he ever does finish at the rim at a high rate or develop a quality floater, he could emerge as one of the best players in the class.

8. Michael Porter Jr., PF/C — Missouri

While Michael Porter Jr. played sparingly at Missouri after a back injury, there is still no question to his overall talent level as a player. The main question remains whether you can count on Porter to be consistently healthy throughout his career.

Porter’s offensive equity combines his potentially lethal size and shooting combination. Measuring in at 6’10” at the NBA Draft Combine, Porter could eventually play the 5 in some spots. The ability to maximize floor-spacing, especially with a shooting threat like Porter in five-out sets would be outstanding for an NBA team’s offense.

Porter also has a lot more ball and perimeter-oriented skills out of any of these big men, with the ability to grab and go off rebounds and attack a close-out offensively. I’m lower on Porter’s athletic ability even pre-back injury than most, and he lacks the overall strength to be a quality finisher at the rim, so his pull-up jump shot from mid-range will be a key component to his overall scoring efficiency.

On the defensive side of the ball, thrusting Porter into a 5 role could be potentially disastrous. He needs to add strength and will be better suited guarding 4s offensively. While Porter has a perimeter-oriented game offensively, he may struggle the most out of any of the top big men defending on the perimeter. While he does have good defensive rebounding instincts, do not expect him to bang down low and get many defensive rebounds early on his career.

There’s no questioning Porter’s offensive talent, as he may have one of the highest ceilings in this draft. Porter needs strength development along with a real sense of pride and interest to be taken on the defensive end of the floor, along with improving his decision-making and reaction times as a passer. Most importantly, Michael Porter Jr. needs to stay healthy in order to develop the rest of his game.