Denver Nuggets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s potential fit
By Max Carlin
The biggest cause for conern
Alas, Gilgeous-Alexander’s efficiency will need buoying for a reason.
This is a profile of a point guard in 2018. You’ve made it roughly 1,900 words, and you’re yet to see a jump shot. I wish that was because I was saving the best for last.
Gilgeous-Alexander shot 40.4 percent from 3 at Kentucky. Sounds good, right? He made 23 triples in college. Sounds less good.
As his 57 attempts from 3 indicate, willingness to launch is a major problem for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:
With time and space that should be adequate for a modern lead guard, SGA refuses to shoot. When he has miles of space and a few hours to line it up, he will occasionally fire up a trey:
His infrequent attempts make clear why he so rarely shoots 3s. Gilgeous-Alexander has an outlandishly slow shot. He doesn’t just want time and space; he needs it.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s release is low and outward, which is especially disappointing given his enormous wingspan. For someone like Villanova’s Mikal Bridges, a likely top-10 pick, elite wingspan translates to a ludicrously high release point. This high release point allows Bridges to get his shot off without being disturbed by a contest.
Think Kevin Durant and Paul George, who appear impervious to contests. Their sky-high release points are key. For Gilgeous-Alexander, contests are going to be a major impediment.
There are also issues with Gilgeous-Alexander’s lower body. He gets very little lift on his jumper—he almost shoots a set shot. The problem with a set shot is that momentum is not exactly a great input. Off the dribble, then, Gilgeous-Alexander needs to slow down and step into his jumper:
When he can, it works. Problems occur when he can’t:
In the NBA, you can’t sacrifice what little space you’ve won by slowing down to step into a jumper, and as we’ve already seen, Gilgeous-Alexander needs space to get his jumper off.
Let’s be clear, Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t Ben Simmons, or even post-injury/post-forgetting-how-to-play-basketball Markelle Fultz:
Gilgeous-Alexander will take 3s when he has the time and space to step into them. The expectation, however, is that Gilgeous-Alexander will be a lead ball-handler in the NBA. He’s not going to have those luxuries.