Golden State Warriors: Analyzing the chances of a three-peat
By Marc Princi
The Golden State Warriors are once again 2018 NBA champions, but a number of teams are closing the gap. What are their chances of a three-peat next season?
The Golden State Warriors have now won three titles in four seasons, and solidifying themselves as a dynasty. It’s been an incredible ride for Dub Nation, and it’s great to know that once the Warriors leave for San Francisco, they were able to win at least three rings for the Oakland faithful.
The Warriors, though tired, remain hungry, and they’ll look to make it four championships in five seasons as they depart The Town at the end of next season. The Warriors enter next season as way too early favorites, but they’re primed for success once again. Let’s look at the main factors which will determine championship success for the Dubs in 2018-19.
The strength of the other teams
This may be an obvious point, but it’s the specifics that need to be analyzed. The Warriors faced only one true threat in this year’s postseason, the Houston Rockets. It could be argued that no team from the East would’ve provided a challenge, but a healthy Boston Celtics team may have caused some issues.
The strength of other teams will be determined by the movements of three key players: LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
The Rockets and Celtics are ready-made challenges for the Warriors, and it’s even more concerning when we consider that the Celtics haven’t had Gordon Hayward in the lineup. The chances of these teams securing the services of either of these players is slim, mainly due to cap space.
Kawhi Leonard is almost out of the picture entirely as reports surface that he has a meeting lined up with the San Antonio Spurs. For these two teams, securing one of these players may help them beat the Warriors, but there are too many factors to work around.
Before we go any further, you may say the Rockets would’ve beaten the Warriors with a healthy Chris Paul. Like Steve Kerr, I contest that the Warriors would’ve beaten the Rockets in five games with a healthy Andre Iguodala. It’s all hypothetical.
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Taking Leonard out of the picture with these two teams purely due to sheer unlikeliness, and we’re down to James and George. George’s two most-rumored destinations (outside of re-signing with the Oklahoma City Thunder) have been the Los Angeles Lakers and the Philadelphia 76ers. The Rockets have been mentioned as potential suitors, but again, it’d require a lot of salary cap gymnastics. The Celtics have seldom been mentioned, mainly due to their number of great quality forwards.
The big talking point with these two teams is James. Why? The teams have both been heavily mentioned as possible destinations. The Rockets with James would definitely make it a series, but the Rockets would literally have to tear up their entire roster and bring back a roster of mainly minimum-level role players if they wanted to team James up with Paul, James Harden and Clint Capela. Paul doesn’t want to take a pay cut, and there’s a strong likelihood James won’t want to either.
There’s also the issue of developing team chemistry, which is hard enough as it is, but as we’ve seen over time, is also a struggle in the first year of a super-team. James didn’t win in his first season with the Miami Heat super-team, nor in 2014 with the Cleveland Cavaliers super-team.
There’s also the fact that there’ll be three primary ball-handlers in James, Paul and Harden, which is likely to create a logjam on offense. Again, this scenario is unlikely due to the Rockets’ salary cap situation, but stranger things have happened.
As for James to the Celtics? Don’t count on it. Kyrie Irving is there, and his opinion will carry a lot of weight. Reports have recently surfaced that the Celtics are worried he’ll leave for the New York Knicks in free agency in 2019, and he can always use that as leverage if the Celtics want to sign James.
General manager Danny Ainge has shown his willingness to trade anyone in order to make the team better, but he’s a big picture guy. There’s also the fact that the Celts are stacked with young talent at the forward position. The move seems unlikely, but again, cannot be counted out.
The Lakers, 76ers and Spurs are the teams that sit just below the Rockets and Celtics if they can get these guys on their team. The Spurs will likely keep Leonard, but will also make a run at James first, and then potentially George. The Lakers have made no secret of their desire to go after James and George, which has resulted in some tampering violations. James and George have also both been pegged as the 76ers’ main targets.
Even if one of these teams gets a combination of two of these three stars, it won’t quite be enough to knock the Warriors off their perch. The Lakers and 76ers have great young talent, but they aren’t quite there yet. The Spurs also won’t have the sheer depth that the Dubs have.
The Warriors need to get younger
Warriors owner Joe Lacob has identified the need for the Dubs to get younger this offseason. This is necessary for any championship team to keep ahead of the pack. Kevin Durant, David West, JaVale McGee, Zaza Pachulia, Kevon Looney, Patrick McCaw and Nick Young are the team’s free agents.
Kevin Durant isn’t going anywhere. David West could be mulling retirement. As for the other five, there’s no indication yet. No doubt that most, if not all of them, want to stay. McCaw and Looney are young and have great upside, so you can expect the Dubs to try to work out a deal with them. For the right money, Young is a valuable shooter for the bench squad.
McGee and Pachulia appear to have the most uncertain futures. Both have contributed to the franchise’s success, but McGee may have gotten the upper hand in the NBA Finals. He saw much more of the floor and was very impressive in guarding LeBron James when he was switched onto him. His versatility is something the Warriors need, and they should bring him back next season.
As for Pachulia, he has gone from being a starter to playing few minutes at the end. He’s a great passing big man, but he doesn’t have the required versatility. If the Warriors were to keep him, he’d be earning minutes behind both McGee and Looney, and at times Draymond Green and Jordan Bell. Pachulia is reportedly a great guy in the locker room, but the Warriors need to put basketball first, and use Pachulia’s roster spot on a younger wing player.
West is another who probably needs to go in order to free up space. He’s a great veteran presence, but the Dubs already have a lot of that. They need to get younger, and that’s exactly what they’ll do. My money is on Pachulia and West not returning.
Next: 5 biggest takeaways from the 2018 NBA Finals
These are the two main factors that will determine a Golden State Warriors three-peat next season. The Warriors will need to watch the movements of others in free agency, while making smart moves of their own.