Wendell Carter Jr.: 2018 NBA Draft player profile

Strengths

Unique offensive repertoire 

While Carter was not Duke’s most productive offensive player, he showcased many different ways he can transfer these offensive skills to major NBA offensive equity. First, we will start off with his passing on the move.

This is a critical and underrated trait for a big man. In order to be able to be an effective roll man out of the pick-and-roll, you must be able to make smart and quick decisions when weak-side help rotates over. Or, if you want to have value in hand-off situations, you have to be able to make smart reads and pass on the move. Hand-off situations make up right around five percent of each team’s offensive possessions, if not more.

Carter is easily the best passing big man in the class in terms of vision and quick decision-making. He can do it on the move, out of the low post or operating in the high to mid-post areas on the court. Here Carter makes a perfect read working off a ball screen for Grayson Allen. Carter fades off the screen, takes one dribble in the lane to draw more weak-side help from Deng Adel. Then without any hesitation, he fires a pass into the corner for an open 3.

Again you can see Carter’s quick decision-making as a passer. This time he makes a phenomenal read off a post-up. Here against Boston College, Carter makes a beautiful read to Gary Trent Jr. fading onto the wing from the top of the key. Without hesitation, Carter fires the pass over to a wide open Trent for 3.

The second aspect to love about Carter’s offensive game is how effective he can be as a scorer with a lower usage rate. Here is a look at the top five big men prospects scoring numbers compared to their usage rates.

Carter is the third-leading scorer with the second-lowest usage rate out of the consensus top five big men in this draft. Carter ranks in the 90th percentile in overall offense, per Synergy. Two of his three highest play types in total points this year came from cuts and put-backs on offensive rebounds, which are two extremely low-usage play types.

Lastly, Carter has the ability down low to finish with either hand in the post. It is a very fundamental trait, but extremely undervalued. We saw his teammate, Marvin Bagley, struggle to finish over defenders this season with his right hand.

Here is Carter against Louisville’s seven-footer, Anas Mahmoud. Notice how Carter catches the ball five seconds into the shot clock. After Duke grabbed the defensive rebound ,Carter immediately went to the mid-post area, where he excels as a scorer, to make a play.

Here Carter pivots to face up on Mahmoud, takes two dribbles to get into the paint and makes a tough left-handed hook shot over Mahmoud, also drawing the foul for an and-1 opportunity.

Rebounding 

Wendell Carter is a phenomenal rebounder, on both sides of the floor. Offensively, Carter translates his rebounding into immediate points. He ranks in the 94th percentile in Synergy on put-backs. Here is how those numbers compare to the same consensus top-five big men prospects on put-back opportunities.

Defensively, Carter is a quality rebounder as well. His numbers suffer a bit because Bagley is also an incredible rebounder. However, Carter still posted a higher defensive rebound percentage than both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Bagley. Ayton and Bamba both had defensive rebounding percentages that were sky-high because nobody else on their team was a very high level rebounder and rebounding percentage is a very team-relative stat.

One of the main reasons Carter is such a rebounding threat is because of his strong frame. To put his overall strength into perspective, here is a comparison of his weight and body fat percentage to Jackson, Bamba and Villanova big man Omari Spellman. Carter weighs almost as much as Spellman, with close to the same body fat percentage of Jackson.

Team defense

The ability for Wendell Carter Jr. to play both sides of the floor is extremely valuable as well. Despite not being an overly explosive leaper, Carter has a 7’4.5″ foot wingspan. His overall length combined with his defensive IQ should make him a good but not great rim protector.

Duke’s defense as a team overall this season was an absolute mess and Carter was frequently left hanging out to dry, but he probably did a better job than almost anyone else could in college basketball this season.

Here you can see a great effort play and rim rotation from Carter in the NCAA Tournament against Rhode Island. Carter is usually left at the bottom of the Duke zone, like he is here. The pass goes into the middle of the zone extremely deep into the paint. Rhode Island guard Stanford Robinson makes an incredible no-look pass. It appears the Rhode Island forward has an easy layup or dunk opportunity at the rim, but Carter quickly rotates over and blocks his shot, preventing the easy opportunity.

Another great defensive trait for Carter is how well he recovers when hedging on a ball screen. This helps to offset Carter’s ability to not become overly switchable in ball-screen defense at the next level.

Here against Boston College, Carter defends a ball screen with an extremely aggressive hedge on Ky Bowman. This aggressive hedge leaves Bowman unable to make the pass to the roll man. Now Bowman must swing the ball to the top of the key, and as soon as Bowman swings that ball, Carter is already back onto his matchup as the pass is unable to be completed to the screener.