Denver Nuggets: Navigating Nikola Jokic’s free agency
By Max Carlin
The Denver Nuggets are in for a hectic 2018 offseason. At the center of that is star center Nikola Jokic’s impending restricted free agency.
The summer of 2018 will be the most consequential in recent Denver Nuggets history. Denver’s star center Nikola Jokic will become a restricted free agent as the clock strikes midnight on July 1 (read why here).
Denver selected Jokic with the 41st pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, and he’s done nothing but defy — that doesn’t feel quite strong enough — expectations since. Jokic has developed into a star. In 2017-18, his third season in the NBA, Jokic averaged 18.5 points, 10.7 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game. The exhaustive list of players to meet those thresholds in 2017-18: Nikola Jokic.
If impact numbers are more your taste, Jokic posted an Real Plus-Minus of 5.95 in 2017-18, tops among centers. His Player Impact Plus-Minus of 4.8 corresponded to an “MVP candidate” season.
There is a premise that is no longer controversial, no longer in need of proving: Nikola Jokic is a star in the NBA. Sure, he’s unconventional, at times problematic, but his individual numbers and his team numbers are so strong. He is, simply, dazzling.
This summer, he’s going to be compensated accordingly.
After accumulating $4.13 million in earnings across his first three NBA seasons, Jokic is set to receive a bit of a raise.
As a 0-6 year veteran, Jokic will be eligible for a maximum contract starting at 25 percent of the cap, roughly $25 million. As Denver possesses Jokic’s Bird rights, the Nuggets will have eight percent raises and five years at their disposal (other teams can offer five percent and four years). It’ll vary depending on where exactly the salary cap lands in 2018-19, but the Nuggets will be able to offer Jokic a contract for five years and worth roughly $147 million.
There are, at this point, two relevant questions: 1) Will the Nuggets offer Jokic the full five-year, $147 million pact? and 2) Should they?
I think answering the second question first will explain my expectation regarding the first.
On court, this is a no-brainer. Jokic’s defense will always be a hot topic, because it will never stand up to the eye test, but as the brilliant Ben Falk of Cleaning the Glass argues, perception of Jokic’s defense is greatly skewed by an innate human inability to accurately weigh what we see.
We see Jokic struggle to contain on the perimeter or alter shots with contests at the rim and decide he must be bad at defense because those possessions are more apparent than the countless others during which he avoids a foul or snatches a rebound.
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I don’t entirely buy into the idea that Jokic is a good defender — that’s a little too slavish to the numbers, even for me — and I think he’ll be further exploited when he is eventually thrown into the fires of postseason play.
However, Jokic puts up a superstar’s box score stats while consistently elevating his team in the manner a superstar should; he’s posted on/off net rating differentials of +10.7, +14 and +14.9 in his three seasons (94th, 97th and 98th percentile among all players, respectively).
Off court, there aren’t really any circumstances to counteract Jokic’s on-court brilliance. Denver could insist that Jokic go out and get an offer sheet, prove his worth. But plenty of bad teams are slated to have cap space, and Jokic is the exact type of young superstar who populates the dreams of executives in Atlanta and Orlando.
Forcing Jokic to find an offer sheet would have its benefits, theoretically. Denver would avoid paying any more than fair market value. Practically, Denver would also have to pay Jokic slightly less after matching the offer sheet, because the non-incumbent team would only be able to offer him five percent raises.
In recent years, however, we’ve seen the worst possible outcome of this tactic haunt small market teams, notably the Utah Jazz. Four years ago, the Jazz dared Gordon Hayward, then more a budding star than bona fide stud, to find a suitor willing to ink him to a maximum offer sheet. Hayward had no trouble doing so.
Last year, after declining the fourth-year player option in his contract, Hayward left the Jazz for the Boston Celtics. Hayward was a lesser player at the time than Jokic is now, but he was desirable—he was always getting the max from someone.
Had Utah acted prudently, not dared its young star to prove his obvious worth, Hayward would still be on the Jazz today, slated to hit free agency in just under a month. With Donovan Mitchell becoming Donovan Mitchell (nowhere is safe, Nuggets fans), Utah sure as hell would’ve had a better shot at keeping its star wing this year than last.
An extra year matters, as does maintaining the easily fractured player-franchise relationship. It may seem insignificant, but there’s something to be said for a team committing to a player, telling him “We believe in you; you’re our guy.”
These implications accounted for, the Nuggets should absolutely extend a maximum contract offer to Jokic, with all the bells and whistles. Five years, 25 percent of the cap, eight percent raises, player option on the fifth year, and heck, a 15 percent trade kicker, if he wants it.
Now is not the time to mess around. Jokic is the franchise player. He’s worth all that and more in a vacuum, and to the Nuggets, his value is further magnified.
That takes us back to whether the Nuggets will, in fact, extend Jokic an offer for the full max. In this situation, Denver has no leverage. The team has built the roster, the franchise around Jokic. He is the present. He is the future.
Denver cannot afford to lose Jokic, not now, and not in three years to a declined player option and a broken relationship. Jokic and his representatives know that. I fully expect them to insist on the five-year max, and I expect Denver to acquiesce.
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There are times to save money and times to maximize value, but negotiations with your franchise centerpiece do not qualify. This summer is a monumental one for the Nuggets. Denver pretty desperately needs to hit on the 14th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. The team must figure out how it will avoid the luxury tax. Many of the obstacles ahead will not be easily navigated, but Nikola Jokic’s free agency should be smooth sailing.