Golden State Warriors: 5 keys to beating Cavaliers in 2018 NBA Finals

1. Don’t let the Cavs shrink the margin of error

The simplest and most effective way to win a playoff series as an underdog is to up the number of variables. Perhaps the best historical example of this was the 2016 Finals.

The Warriors were a 73-win team with more top-end talent, depth, defense and chemistry. They were heavy favorites. No Cleveland misfortune would have changed that fact. But Warriors misfortune? That would have changed everything. And it did.

History almost repeated itself in this year’s Western Conference Finals. They Warriors could have put the series away in Game 4, but they let up and allowed Houston back in late. Klay Thompson hurt his knee during the comeback, and another clutch win later, the Rockets were up 3-2. They were also up double digits at the half in both Games 6 and 7.

Ultimately, the Warriors were still the better team, and came back to win both games decisively. But imagine if the Rockets got hot late in Game 7. Or if Durant stayed cold. Or if the next injury did not hit Chris Paul, but rather another key Warriors player.

All Cleveland wants to do is make these “what ifs” matter — to get to a position where the sample size is small enough that an injury or suspension here and a big block and clutch 3 there can determine this series.

Kerr loves to play the long game, and his 5-1 record in elimination games goes a long way to vindicate his oft-criticized approach. The flip side is that the Warriors would have won in 2016 and knocked out Houston earlier had Kerr and his team been more focused through five games.

Next: 2018 NBA Finals series preview

Sure, there is a world in which Kerr coaches conservatively while his team plays with a sense of urgency. Throughout his tenure, and particularly this season, the two seem to be tied together. If Kerr wants his guys to avoid complacency, he needs to lead by example.