2018 NBA Draft: 5 reasons Luka Doncic should go No. 1
By Connor Harr
1. The modern NBA
I already touched on the NBA’s shift toward small-ball lineups and how Doncic’s size as a potential lead guard or wing creator makes him extremely valuable. With the current infatuation of small-ball lineups, it does Doncic justice, but also discredits other potential No. 1 draft selections as well.
Looking at the four teams in the conference finals, the two best true big men are Al Horford and Clint Capela. While Capela is an important piece to the Rockets and has grown into a valuable player, he is very limited in their offense. Horford is a very important piece in Boston’s offense, but has a very unique skill-set. He has grown into a quality switchable defender on the perimeter since coming into the league while developing both his jump shot and passing.
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I do not want to rip Deandre Ayton or Marvin Bagley III, because both are still great prospects. However, both struggle on the defensive end, in particular with rim protection, team defense and defending in space. Those defensive components are what make a valuable defensive big man in today’s game.
If neither develop in those areas I am not sure how valuable they are to winning basketball. Both are still tremendous rebounders and scorers, but are limited to what they can do even offensively, at least immediately without consistent jump shooting. Even if or when both become good or serviceable shooters, they still will likely not bring the defensive value teams want out of their “modern” bigs.
The dark horse candidate for a possible No. 1 selection would be Jaren Jackson Jr. The Michigan State big man has all the makings of a high quality defensive big. However, with his low release and poor shooting form, there are questions of whether his jump shot will translate.
He is still way farther along in his perimeter game development than a player like Capela was when he was drafted, but it is hard to project if he ever becomes a real threat off the dribble at his position. There is an easy pathway for Jackson to become a tremendously valuable and trailblazing defender for modern bigs, but does will he add high quality offensive value?
For all of these reasons and uncertainty, Doncic also has a tremendous floor as a prospect. Teams and Suns fans should not be scared of Doncic because he’s a European player.
Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft - Doncic still No. 1 in post-lottery edition
If you watch any of his games, you will realize how much international basketball has grown. You will also see why your typical European stereotypes do not apply to Doncic. Lastly, you will probably notice that the European stereotypes are extremely out of date and played out. Do not be afraid of Luka Doncic as a future Phoenix Sun, embrace him.