Milwaukee Bucks: The curious case of Thon Maker

For the Milwaukee Bucks, center Thon Maker has found wildly unexpected success in the playoffs, where he becomes a valuable pawn.

It’s rare for a player to truly elevate his game come the playoffs. We’ve become accustomed to LeBron James doing so, making it seem normal for the best of the best to shift into a gear they keep on ice between July and April.

Not every superstar reaches a new level when the stakes are highest. James Harden’s become notorious for his (overstated) playoff struggles. Ben Simmons seemingly lost the ability to play basketball during a second round gentleman’s sweep at the hands of the Boston Celtics.

The postseason is hard. Everyone tries, and the stakes are real. For some, even the best of the best, it’s too much. That’s not the case for Milwaukee Bucks center Thon Maker.

Maker is only two years into his NBA career. He’s had two forgettable regular seasons, but he always seems to be the star of the afterparty.

In terms of box score numbers, Maker’s seen an increase in productivity during the postseason, boasting higher points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks averages in the playoffs compared to the regular season.

More importantly, Maker’s presence in the playoffs has always spelled success for the Bucks. This year, Maker had the team’s highest on/off net rating differential at +23.5 points per 100 possessions. During the 2016-17 playoffs, the Bucks were 3.4 points per 100 possessions better with Maker on than off.

Meanwhile, Maker’s regular seasons have been marked by ineffectiveness. In his rookie year, the Bucks’ performance was indifferent to Maker, as he amassed a +0.9 on/off differential. This year, the Bucks were 7.1 points per 100 possessions worse with Maker on than off, the worst mark for any Buck who logged more than 500 minutes.

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Behind the Buck Pass

What we have on our hands is a puzzle — a player who, judging by almost all available evidence, isn’t particularly special, but becomes a difference-maker when the stakes are highest.

With Maker, it’s not that he becomes wildly productive in the postseason—the increase in box score productivity I mentioned earlier can be attributed entirely to an increased minutes load, as his per 36 minutes postseason averages are perfectly in line with his regular season averages.

Instead, he becomes an invaluable pawn in the game of chess that is the NBA Playoffs.

Maker has what’s best termed as an “intriguing” skill-set. He’s a talented shot-blocker and theoretically has range out to 3-point territory. His mobility should allow him to contain smaller players on the perimeter. He has the foundation of an eminently useful player.

The reality with Maker, however, has always been fairly underwhelming. Billed as “the next Kevin Durant” in YouTube mixtapes, he was, in fact, more Serge Ibaka, and he’s got a long way to go before he reaches those heights.

Beyond shot-blocking, Maker struggles with defense in the aggregate, largely due to a crippling lack of strength. While he’s thought of as a stretch big, Maker is a low-frequency, low-accuracy 3-point marksman, armed with more of a blunderbuss than a rifle. His greatest strength is undoubtedly his motor, which is truly elite, but his relentless energy has its drawbacks, as it tires him out and consigns him to low-minute role.

All that being said, Maker presents matchup problems:

He might not be the world’s greatest shooter, but he at least forces a close out. He can be neglected, but not ignored:

Defensively, he has the length to bother bigs and the footwork to contain guards:

When his feet fail him, the length comes in handy against smaller players, too:

A player who kind of stretches the floor and brings some degree of dynamism on defense creates an inconvenience. He renders mediocre traditional big men ineffective.

Maker’s encountered some mediocre traditional big men during both of his playoff runs. In 2016-17, against the Toronto Raptors, Maker began the series starting opposite Jonas Valanciunas. This year, Maker kicked off the series facing Boston Celtics reserve Greg Monroe.

Last year, Maker played Valanciunas out of the starting lineup by Game 4, when he was replaced by wing Norman Powell and the Raptors turned to Serge Ibaka as a small-ball center. This year, Maker played Monroe clean out of the rotation, and worked his way from a DNP-CD in Game 1 vs. the Celtics to starting by Game 6.

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Maker forces opponents to go small, and once they go small, he himself is not really a problem. However, Maker imbalances rotations. He reassigns wings, who aren’t necessarily very good, from the end of the bench to prominent roles.

Last year, Maker elevated Powell from out-of-the-rotation to a prominent role. Powell acquitted himself quite nicely and played a major part in the Raptors’ series victory. This year, Maker exhumed Semi Ojeleye, who fared well defensively, but warped the Celtics’ offense with his ineptitude, a hindrance that Boston barely survived (the Celtics’ offense fell off by 4.0 points per 100 possessions with Ojeleye on the court).

Maker’s utility is not so much derived from what he does on the court, but from who he draws on to the court, the reaction he elicits from opposing coaches.

In the regular season, you live with 10-15 minutes of Maker being a nuisance. You absorb his energy, deal with his annoying strengths, and punish his significant weaknesses. In the playoffs, every second must be maximized, so you respond. But it’s that response, not Maker’s play, that really hurts you. He’s a magical pawn, his powers granting him license to rebuild an opponent’s playoff rotation.

Next: Full two-round 2018 NBA Mock Draft

Thon Maker doesn’t elevate his play in the way the game’s elite do when it matters most. However, he develops undeniable utility. He evolves from a player with flaws too glaring and strengths too limited into an invaluable piece in a game of strategy.