Los Angeles Clippers: 2018 NBA Draft Lottery odds
The Los Angeles Clippers have good odds of coming away with two top-14 picks at the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery.
The Los Angeles Clippers were once the red-jerseyed stepchildren of Southern Californian pro hoops. However, they became a perennial playoff team this decade, making six consecutive postseason appearances.
Unfortunately, the streak was snapped in 2017-18. The Clippers, now choosing to wear blue as their main color jersey, ended the year with a 42-40 record. Despite the above-.500 finish, Los Angeles sat five games out of eighth place in the Western Conference.
It was a year of transition, featuring 21 players suiting up for the Clippers as they looked to move on from the Lob City Era, the most successful era in franchise history. The team dealt away stars Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and Jamal Crawford while receiving players such as Tobias Harris, Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari in return.
L.A. also dealt with a lot of injuries in 2018. Austin Rivers, Milos Teodosic, Avery Bradley, Beverley, Gallinari and Griffin are just a sampling of the names that missed extended time due to injury throughout the year. Lou Williams (team-high 2,589 minutes) and DeAndre Jordan (2,424) were the healthiest players on the team and had great seasons.
Jordan finished the year averaging 12.0 points and 15.2 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, Williams was a scoring machine in his sixth man role. He had 17 games of 30 points or more, including a 50-point night on Jan. 10 against the Golden State Warriors. His performances created a groundswell of people that wanted him selected to his first All-Star Game. Unfortunately, he did not make the cut.
Moving forward, the Clippers have 10 players under contract in 2018-19, three players with player options (Jordan, Rivers, Teodosic) and a restricted free agent in Montrezl Harrell. After not having any selections in the 2017 NBA Draft, having a lottery pick could be the thing that keeps them from returning to their cellar-dwelling past.
However, what if the Clippers didn’t have just one lottery selection, but two? In the Jan. 29 trade that sent Blake Griffin to the Detroit Pistons, L.A. received Harris, Bradley, Boban Marjanovic and a top four-protected first round pick in this draft. With the Pistons missing the postseason by four games, that pick also falls in the lottery.
The draft lottery odds are set up so that teams only have a shot at a top three selection, a selection within their seeding in the reverse standings, and up to three picks behind that spot. Here are the odds for the Clippers’ own lottery pick:
- 1st: 0.6%
- 2nd: 0.7%
- 3rd: 0.9%
- 13th: 96.0%
- 14th: 1.8%
The Clippers have selected 13th three times in franchise history. Loy Vaught (1990) was the most successful Clipper of the bunch. However, Joe Wolf (1987) and Terry Dehere (1993) carved out decent careers as role players. Hoops Habit‘s own Connor Harr speculates in his April mock draft that the Clippers could select Kentucky’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with this pick.
If the pick ends up in the top three, it would put the Clips back to familiar territory. Los Angeles has had a top three selection in the draft 12 times. They’ve had a No. 3 pick four times, No. 2 five times, and the No. 1 overall pick three times.
There are some big names on that list including Blake Griffin (No. 1, 2009), Danny Manning (No. 1, 1988) and Bob McAdoo (No. 2, 1972). However, there are also infamous names such as Michael Olowokandi (No. 1, 1998) and Darius Miles (No. 3, 2000). The top of the 2018 NBA Draft has great players available like Luka Doncic and DeAndre Ayton. Given their mixed history of top selections, the Clippers would have to choose wisely.
Again, L.A. will only receive the pick from the Pistons so long as it is outside of the top four. That has a 97.4% chance of happening. Here are the full odds below:
- 1st: 0.7% (Pistons)
- 2nd: 0.8% (Pistons)
- 3rd: 1.0% (Pistons)
- 12th: 93.5% (Clippers)
- 13th: 3.9% (Clippers)
- 14th: >0.0% (Clippers)
L.A. has only selected 12th twice, drafting Melvin Ely in 2002 and Yaroslav Korolev in 2005. Harr’s mock draft pegs Missouri’s Jontay Porter as a good pick at this point in the draft.
The Los Angeles Clippers are a team looking to move on from one era of playoff contention in hopes of starting a new one as quickly as possible. Some saavy selections in the 2018 NBA Draft could help speed up the process.
Next: Full two-round 2018 NBA Mock Draft
Where will the Clippers’ lottery pick fall? Will they have two selections on their hands come draft day? We will find out when the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery takes place in Chicago on Tuesday, May 15.