Golden State Warriors: 5 keys to conference finals vs. Rockets
1. Stay the course
The Warriors are the most talented team ever. They have two MVPs in their prime, and two other Hall-of-Famers. Oh, and they usually bring Scottie Pippen off the bench.
Their biggest strength, however, is not on paper. Daryl Morey built the Rockets to beat this team, and he did the best job imaginable. Paul and Harden can break the Splash Brothers’ spell of unfairness. Capela can be as big of a problem for Green as Green is for Capela. While no one can guard Durant, Ariza/Mbah a Moute/Tucker is as good a trio to slow him down as a team can realistically assemble.
That says nothing of Houston’s superior depth.
No, the Warriors’ biggest strength in this series is not in matchups, but in mentality. Much like LeBron James‘ dominance of the Raptors transcended the court and entered Toronto’s mindspace this season, Golden State is in Houston’s collective head. It is certainly in Paul’s and Harden’s, as is the weight of other lingering playoff failures.
The reminders are everywhere. Paul need only look at his backcourt mate to remember the blown Game 6 of 2015, or at Durant to remember his Game 5 meltdown from the previous season. For Harden, stepping on the Oracle floor will surely conjure images of lying down on it after being stripped by Curry and Thompson, or turning the ball over 13 times a few days later.
The playoff demons run deeper than that. Before this season, Paul had lost as many series with home-court advantage as he had won series, period (four each). Harden’s Rockets’ one great triumph (their 2015 comeback against Paul’s Clippers) came with the Beard on the bench, while his greatest failure (scoring 10 points in Game 6 of Round 2 last year) came with Kawhi Leonard injured.
Then there’s Mike D’Antoni, who has as many conference finals appearances in his career as a head coach as Paul and Harden have combined in their careers.
Golden State is not without its demons. Everyone remaining from the 2016 team knows what it’s like to choke a series away, as does Durant, thanks to the Warriors a round earlier.
Winning a title changes everything, though. Champions learn from their mistakes retroactively. Past failures cease to haunt and start to inform. “Here we go again” is replaced by “We ain’t going home.”
None of this is to say that the Rockets are guaranteed to choke, or that Golden State is invulnerable. Rather, it is to say that until the buzzer sounds on Houston’s fourth win of this series, the Warriors will be in it.
If the Rockets win Game 1, the Warriors will likely come out on fire in Game 2. And if they drop that one as well, they’ll dig in at Oracle. Even if they fall down 3-1, will anyone write the Warriors off? They’ve gutted it out from that position before, and they have Durant now.
Conversely, how do the Rockets react if Golden State goes up 1-0? If it gets to 2-0, the series is just about over. The same thing is true if it gets to 3-1, even with Game 5 in Houston.
No matter which direction this series goes early, Golden State will be in it. The same cannot be said for the Rockets. For that reason, it is hard to see Houston winning in less than seven, while a Warriors’ sweep is on the table.
Next: Full two-round 2018 NBA Mock Draft
Which of those outcomes this series swings closer to will depend on the four issues we addressed earlier. So long as the Warriors stay the course, that tilts things heavily in their favor.