Golden State Warriors: 5 keys to conference finals vs. Rockets
3. What happens in the Non-Curry minutes
Of all the rotational concerns, one looms largest.
With Curry on the floor, the Warriors are as good as any basketball team ever has been. They outscored opponents by 14.4 points per 100 possessions during the regular season (per Cleaning The Glass). The year before, that number was 17.8. In Curry’s second MVP year it was 17.5, and it was 17.0 in his first MVP year.
With Curry off the court? It was 0.6 in 2014-15, and -3.7 the following year. (Think about that: The Warriors played like a 30-win team when Curry sat during a year in which they won 73 games).
Signing Durant brought them back to average in 2016-17 (+0.2 net rating without Curry), and +1.4 this season. Still, the gap is massive. In this matchup with Houston, it is colossal.
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The most brilliant part of the Chris Paul trade — and the No. 1 reason that the early skepticism was absurd — was that it guaranteed Houston 48 minutes of elite offense. With Harden off the court over the previous four seasons, the Rockets’ net ratings were similar to the Warriors without their star: -0.3, -2.0, -6.1, +3.7.
This year, it was +7.7. And with Harden off and Paul on, it was +12.3.
It is difficult to fully grasp the implications of this. Golden State is the far more talented team, and Curry is on the court more often than he isn’t. What does this number really mean?
If everything else holds to form, it means this will be a tight series. Houston (+9.0 overall net rating) should outscore the Curry-less Warriors by a little over two points during the 12-15 minutes Curry sits. Golden State (+14.4 with Curry) should outscore Houston (+9.0 overall) by between 3-4 points during the remaining 33-36 minutes. The overall difference is small enough that this series could go either way.
Of course, there is reason to believe things do not hold to form. The regular season non-Curry minutes were marred by a combination of other concerns. Injuries, indifference and a lack of continuity were all negative factors that should be gone in this series.
Look no further than this postseason for evidence. The Warriors have still been best with Curry (+14.9, per NBA.com), but their non-Curry net rating is +7.4.
Part of that has to do with matchups. Durant isos were especially effective against the San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans, and will be less so against Houston. But a lot has to do with effort and familiarity, as the Warriors are healthy and locked in for the first time all season.
If this change indicates that the Warriors have figured out how to be elite without Curry, this will be a short series. If it is more about matchups and sample size, the Rockets will dominate the non-Curry minutes and make each game a near-even proposition.