Golden State Warriors: 5 keys to conference finals vs. Rockets

4. Keeping the rotation short

Much like Green does at center, all four of the Warriors All-Stars unlock cheat codes at their natural positions.

Curry commands double-teams 30 feet from the basket, but gets no less terrifying once you get the ball out of his hands. Kevin Durant is a small forward who is neither small nor a forward, combining the size of Capela with the skill of Paul.

Then there’s Thompson, a catch-and-shoot guy with a twist: He doesn’t need to be open, or set, or even facing the basket, which makes him closer to a shot creator than a catch-and-shoot guy. Oh, and he can guard anyone from Damian Lillard to Kawhi Leonard.

Harden and Paul comprise arguably the best backcourt ever assembled. Imagine if Clyde Drexler had played with John Stockton. Then imagine that Drexler was one of the best passers in the league and a perennial MVP frontrunner. And that Stockton could get you 30 if was asked to.

Now, imagine neither of those guys being either of the best two players in a series.

Curry and Durant alone give the Warriors a significant edge in top-end talent, and that gap is nothing compared to that between Thompson and Green and Houston’s No. 3 and No. 4 guys, Capela and Trevor Ariza. Even Golden State’s No. 5 (Andre Iguodala) is better than Houston’s (P.J. Tucker).

If you go deeper, things start to flip. Eric Gordon and Luc Mbah a Moute is a more impactful backcourt reserve tandem than Quinn Cook and Shaun Livingston. Ryan Anderson and Nene have more utility that Golden State’s frontcourt reserves, all of whom are 5s. Gerald Green is not known for defense or consistency, but both are relative advantages over Nick Young.

What’s the point of all this? Simply put, Kerr would be best served playing seven guys, while Mike D’Antoni may go 10 deep.

This runs contrary to each coach’s philosophy. Kerr is famously egalitarian, whereas D’Antoni is known for shortening rotations and lengthening minutes. In this matchup, both would be wise to switch.

Doing so requires a balancing act. Kerr cannot lean too heavily on his best guys, lest he fatigue or injure them. Curry is still recovering from his sprained MCL, while Iguodala and Livingston are at the constant-preservation stage of their respective careers. Durant, Thompson and Green can handle larger workloads, but pushing them early may tire them late, in the context of both a single game and the series (and the potential series ahead).

For D’Antoni, it’s even trickier. His depth might be his advantage, but his stars are still his stars. Giving more of Harden and Capela’s minutes to Gordon and Nene does not do him any favors in a vacuum.

At the same time, pushing his best lineup to the extent Kerr pushes his own is a losing battle. For D’Antoni to gain an advantage with the top guys on the court, he must find a way to keep his top guys fresher than Golden State’s.

If the Rockets’ starters are indeed fresher than the Warriors’ down the stretch of the first few games, Kerr will have to adjust his rotations. If D’Antoni can use his depth in early games to force Kerr to use his as the series progresses, the Rockets have a real path to winning in six or seven games.

If Kerr can get away with a short rotation, this thing might be over before fatigue even comes into play.