Golden State Warriors: 5 keys to conference finals vs. Rockets
5. Whoever plays center when Draymond does not
Throughout his tenure, Steve Kerr has treated Draymond Green and the center position like vodka and red bull. The two go great together, and give the Warriors that lift they need at the end of the night. Indulge too early or too often, however, and the team will wear down.
This approach is defensible. Kerr has so much talent that he can prioritize things like rest and chemistry over optimal lineups. While it is easy to point to examples of Kerr’s ethos backfiring, it is much harder to quantify the fatigue, injuries and chemistry rifts that have been avoided.
The flip side is that Green at center has revolutionized basketball. Just as much as teams seek a Curry-like point guard who can both shoot 3s off the dribble and run the offense, they seek centers who can defend inside and out without sacrificing offense in the process. Kerr knows this, and that’s why he started Green at center for the last two games of the New Orleans Pelicans series.
He is likely to stick with the lineup against Houston, a team that won 65 games and breezed through two rounds largely due to its exploitation of opposing centers. Get a traditional big man switched onto Paul or Harden, and their world opens up. Drives to the bucket. Step-back 3s. Lobs to Clint Capela. Drive-and-kicks to the corner.
We saw this strategy first topple the defensively challenged Karl-Anthony Towns in Round 1, and then the Stifle Tower himself in Round 2. (It should be noted that Rudy Gobert was much, MUCH better than Towns in this matchup).
Following that logic, JaVale McGee and Zaza Pachulia — the guys who started all but eight games at center for the Warriors this regular season — should be stricken from the rotation.
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That doesn’t mean Kerr can play Green at the 5 for 48 minutes a night. The closest he has come was in the 2015 NBA Finals, when Green played close to 36 minutes at center in both Games 5 and 6. A similar approach would be wise here.
That still leaves 12 or so minutes for some combination of Kevon Looney, Jordan Bell and David West. All three present different issues in this matchup.
Bell is the most physically adept to switch onto Houston’s guards and cover ground as a help guy, but he is also the least heady of the bunch. He is prone to biting on pump fakes, reaching in and overextending himself in help defense. That’s a bad look against Harden and Paul, both masters of foul-baiting and help-manipulating.
On the other end of the spectrum is West. The 37-year-old is both the smartest and slowest of the bunch (shocker, I know). He ultimately gives the Warriors a safer floor than Bell, as he will stay in position, use his strength and at least make his fouls count. He is also guaranteed to get burned a few times each game.
Given that, Kerr has two options:
- He can use Bell and West situationally — West if the Warriors are in the penalty, Bell if they have fouls to spare. Bell if they are trailing and need several minutes of high-upside defense, and West when adequate defense will do.
- He can go back to Looney, his favorite option through two rounds.
Looney combines Bell’s agility with West’s mistake-free style of play. He is the perfect hedge between the two.
The problem is that he isn’t all that good at anything. In a series of superlatives, that might make him a nothing. He’s a decent switch guy, but Harden and Paul are elite. He’s got okay strength, but Capela will still beat him on the glass. He can cover some ground as a help defender, but Houston stretches defenses across the entire court.
Which option Kerr goes with will also depend on who Houston plays up front. Bell would be ideal against Ryan Anderson or P.J. Tucker. Looney has the best chance of hanging with Capela, while West is a good counter to Nene.
The important thing is that he find 12 minutes worth of adequate play from these three. And that he doesn’t let McGee or Pachulia anywhere near the court.