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Detroit Pistons: 2018 NBA Draft Lottery odds

By Kenneth Teape

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 16: Deputy Commissioner of the NBA, Mark Tatum announces the Detroit Pistons 12th pick during the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery at the New York Hilton in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 16: Deputy Commissioner of the NBA, Mark Tatum announces the Detroit Pistons 12th pick during the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery at the New York Hilton in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The Detroit Pistons do not have a great chance of retaining their first round pick based on 2018 NBA Draft Lottery odds.

The 2017-18 regular season wasn’t a great one for the Detroit Pistons. If the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery doesn’t go their way, it will be an even worse season.

The Pistons are going to have new leadership by the time the 2018-19 regular season rolls around. Last week, the team parted ways with head coach and president of basketball operations, Stan Van Gundy. Detroit will have a new coaching staff and front office in place, but its first offseason on the job will be a rough one.

The final move that Van Gundy made with the Pistons was a desperate attempt at making the postseason. Detroit completed a blockbuster deal with the Los Angeles Clippers, bringing Blake Griffin to town.

Along with Griffin, the Pistons acquired Brice Johnson and Willie Reed. In exchange, Detroit sent Avery Bradley, Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic, a 2018 first round pick and 2019 second round pick to Los Angeles.

It was a last-ditch effort by Van Gundy to get the Pistons into the postseason, but it came up short. Detroit had one winning season, 2015-16, under Van Gundy in the four that he was leading the show.

Now, Van Gundy is gone and the Pistons are stuck in a tough spot. Detroit is virtually capped out until the summer of 2020. Worst of all, they won’t be able to add another young player to the roster this season unless they get really lucky in the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery.

The first round pick traded to the Clippers is only top-four protected. the Pistons enter the lottery with only six lottery chances, as they landed in the 12th spot. The odds are not in their favor to keep that selection:

  • 1st:  0.7% (Pistons)
  • 2nd:  0.8% (Pistons)
  • 3rd:  1.0% (Pistons)
  • 12th:  93.5% (Clippers)
  • 13th:  3.9% (Clippers)
  • 14th:  >0.0% (Clippers)

Lady Luck will have to work double time for the Pistons to retain their first round pick in the draft this year. Detroit has only 2.5 percent chance of keeping its pick. More than likely, this selection will be relayed over to the Clippers, whose own selection is likely to land in the 13th spot in the lottery.

While not having a lottery pick is disappointing, the Pistons have not done well recently when they have a chance to select talent this high in the draft. Stanley Johnson has not panned out as hoped. Henry Ellenson hasn’t received much of a chance to produce and Luke Kennard was criminally underused his rookie season as offseason moves buried him on the depth chart.

Detroit has picked in the 12th spot six times in franchise history. Before Kennard last year, the team selected Kelly Tripucka in 1981. Prior to that, Dorie Murray in 1966, Jerry Smith in 1963, Johnny Egan in 1961 and Ron Johnson in 1960 were all selected 12th, though they were second round picks at the time.

The Pistons won’t make it seven times selecting 12th in the NBA Draft this year. If they get to make a pick at all, they will be extremely lucky.

Next: Detroit Pistons 5 Biggest Disappointments in 2017-18

We will find out for sure if the Pistons are sending their pick to the Clippers or keeping it on Tuesday, May 15.

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