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Denver Nuggets: 2018 NBA Draft Lottery odds

By Max Carlin

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 16: Gary Harris #14 of the Denver Nuggets waves to the crowd during the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery at the New York Hilton in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 16: Gary Harris #14 of the Denver Nuggets waves to the crowd during the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery at the New York Hilton in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The Denver Nuggets have the least favorable odds in the 2018 NBA Draft lottery, but that won’t stop the team from adding much-needed talent come June’s draft.

Though disappointing, it’s hard to argue the Denver Nuggets’ 2017-18 season was a disappointment. Ravaged by injury, most damagingly to star forward Paul Millsap, the Nuggets hovered around the bottom of the playoff picture for most of the season.

Alas, Denver’s 46 wins, which would have been good for the sixth seed in the inferior Eastern Conference, was not quite enough to propel the Nuggets to the postseason.

The Nuggets have been golfing for just over a month—ever since a heartbreaking loss in what amounted to a one-game playoff with the Minnesota Timberwolves on the regular season’s final day.

There remains just one box to check before the Nuggets’ 50th NBA season can be filed away: the 2018 NBA Draft.

Of course, the consolation prize for narrowly missing the playoffs is a few combinations, an overwhelming statistical improbability, but some semblance of hope.

When the ping pong balls fly around at Tuesday’s draft lottery, invariably changing the courses of several franchises, it’s hard to imagine that Jamal Murray, core piece and Denver’s representative at Tuesday’s festivities, will be nervous.

The Nuggets were the NBA’s best team to not advance beyond the regular season, meaning that while they’ll be represented at the lottery, their chances of winning will be far more lottery-esque than those of the NBA’s worst team, the Phoenix Suns.

Where Phoenix has a 25 percent shot at the top pick, a 64.2 percent chance to remain in the top-three, and cannot fall below fourth, the Nuggets are a bit of a long shot.

The ping pong balls generate 1,000 possible combinations. Of those 1,000, five have been assigned to Denver. The Nuggets, therefore, have a 0.5 percent chance at the No. 1 overall selection, a 1.8 percent likelihood of jumping into the top three, and a 98.2 percent chance of staying put at pick 14. The lottery’s simply not worth getting nervous about for Denver.

Here’s the pick-by-pick breakdown for the Nuggets:

  • 1st:  0.5%
  • 2nd:  0.6%
  • 3rd:  0.7%
  • 14th:  98.2%

Only one time in the history of the lottery has a team with the worst odds vaulted all the way to the top (the Orlando Magic in 1993), but the distribution of combinations (and number of teams) was different then. The Magic had triple the probability of jumping up to No. 1 than the Nuggets.

But if the basketball gods do smile upon the Mile High City, the implications would obviously be immense. In prospects like Luka Doncic and Jaren Jackson Jr., the Nuggets would find answers so well-suited to their problems it would seem like management had found a way to bring an NBA 2K Create-A-Player to life.

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Doncic, a playmaking wing, would be the final piece to a starting lineup on the brink of greatness, the perfect ball-handler and passing savant to play alongside kindred spirit Nikola Jokic. Jackson, a freaky defensive prospect with a credible-ish 3-ball, was designed in a lab to play alongside Jokic, spacing the floor on offense and anchoring the defense.

Don’t drool too much, though. Sure, 1.8 percent is possible, but don’t get your hopes up on less than 1-in-50.

Instead, focus on pick No. 14, where the Nuggets will almost assuredly select come June 21. Thankfully, solid options abound even in the early teens of this year’s draft.

For the Nuggets, guys like Texas Tech’s Zhaire Smith and Kentucky’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would be huge gets in the middle of the first round.

Smith is a high-flying wing with a projectable shot and defensive ability beyond his years. He could offer the help on the wing the Nuggets so desperately need. Gilgeous-Alexander, meanwhile, is a herky-jerky guard with elite size. His positional versatility and potential to play both ends would be major pluses for Denver — he strikes me as a perfect third guard alongside Murray and Gary Harris.

Next: Full two-round 2018 NBA Mock Draft

Next year, the Nuggets will be better. They’ll be healthy, further developed, and on account of this year’s lottery pick, more talented — whether they’re graced by a miracle or not.

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