Atlanta Hawks: 2018 NBA Draft Lottery odds
The Atlanta Hawks’ undertook this hard reboot for the express purpose of landing a top lottery pick. Will it pay off for them in the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery?
Despite reaching the playoffs for 10 consecutive seasons, the Atlanta Hawks couldn’t escape the hamster wheel of mediocrity. During their decade of mundane competence, they reached the Eastern Conference Finals once, when they ran into the brick wall that is LeBron James in 2015.
The Atlanta front office apparently grew tired of losing in the first two rounds over and over again, deciding to start from scratch by unloading their veteran stalwarts and replacing them with young, unproven talent. The end result wasn’t surprising, as the Hawks finished with the worst record in the East this year.
For the Hawks, the upcoming 2018 NBA Draft Lottery represents the light at the end of a long, dark tunnel. Thanks to their abysmal record, Atlanta has the fourth-best odds to secure the No. 1 overall pick at 13.7 percent and a 42.3 percent chance to get a top-three pick.
Here are their odds in detail:
- 1st: 13.7%
- 2nd: 14.2%
- 3rd: 14.5%
- 4th: 8.5%
- 5th: 32.3%
- 6th: 15.5%
- 7th: 1.3%
With a top-10 pick almost guaranteed, the Hawks have a great chance to add another young player with some upside to their rebuilding club. They already have some decent building blocks in the form of John Collins and Taurean Prince, but they need a player with superstar potential to become championship contenders. Fortunately for the Hawks, this year’s draft harbors an abundance of impact players.
Worst-case scenario, the Hawks could pick a player like Mohamed Bamba, a springy, lanky big with nearly unlimited potential on both sides of the court. When Bamba is the worst possible player you could get in this draft, you’re in good shape. If the Hawks pick fifth (their most likely selection spot), they could bring in Trae Young, Marvin Bagley III or Michael Porter Jr. All three of those players could blossom into top NBA players, which makes the Hawks’ situation an impossible one to screw up.
Unfortunately, Atlanta’s recent history picking in the lottery hasn’t been great. Their misses (Josh Childress, Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams, DerMarr Johnson) are much more prominent than their hits (Jason Terry, Al Horford) and they haven’t selected a Hall of Fame player that suited up for them since they picked Pete Maravich third overall in 1970.
Historically, the Hawks are better known for drafting current and future Hall-of-Famers and trading them to other teams. They picked Pau Gasol third overall back in the 2001 NBA Draft, but they traded him to the then-Vancouver Grizzlies for Shareef Abdur-Raheem. Gasol became one of the best big men in NBA history while Abdur-Raheem lasted only two and a half seasons with the Hawks.
They also picked swingman David Thompson first overall back in 1975, but he elected to play for the Denver Nuggets, who were in the flashier ABA then, instead. Worst of all, the Hawks had a chance to have one of the greatest players of all time in Bill Russell don their jersey when they picked him second overall in 1956. However, the then-St. Louis Hawks promptly traded him for hometown boy Ed Macauley. “Easy Ed” only played with the Hawks for three seasons before retiring.
Next: Full two-round 2018 NBA Mock Draft
Suffice to say, the Hawks have had little luck gathering talent via the draft. If they want to improve going forward, that has to change. Drawing a top pick in a draft flush with talent tips the scales in Atlanta’s favor. But if they come up short again, especially with the draft odds set to change next year, the Hawks could be doomed to run in place for another 10 years, or longer.