New York Knicks: 2018 NBA Draft Lottery odds and history

The New York Knicks head into the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery with the ninth-best odds to land the top pick. What are their chances of moving into the top four?

The New York Knicks postseason drought has now reached five seasons after going 29-53 during the 2017-18 regular season. One positive to the underwhelming season is that the Knicks actually own their first round pick. Heading into the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery, the Knicks will have the ninth-best odds at landing the top pick.

A lottery selection didn’t look to be in the cards for the Knicks early in the season. New York was at the .500 mark heading into the new year with an 18-18 record. However, injuries began popping up and things quickly derailed.

New York went 5-11 in the month of January. The final blow came in the first week of February when superstar power forward Kristaps Porzingis went down with a knee injury. Porzingis tore his ACL, ending his season and effectively ending the Knicks’ playoff chances.

They won only six games in February, March and April. That is the kind of tanking that would make plenty of organizations jealous, but that wasn’t the plan for the Knicks from the start. As a result, they have only the ninth-best odds in the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery despite all those losses.

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The Knicks’ chances are slim to land the No. 1 overall pick at only 1.7 percent. They have a 6.1 percent chance of moving into the top four, which would give them a shot at a transcendent talent such as DeAndre Ayton, Luka Doncic, Marvin Bagley III or Mohamed Bamba.

This is the last year under the current format before the NBA implements its new draft lottery rules. The three teams with the worst records in the NBA all will have a 14 percent chance at landing the top overall pick once the new system kicks in for 2019. In the current format, the team with the worst record in the NBA has a 25 percent chance, and each team following has a smaller chance at landing the top pick.

While those teams will see their lottery odds shrink, every team from fourth-14th will see its chances at landing the top pick increase, even if it will only be a small percentage better. Here are the odds for the last year of the current system before the draft lottery reform kicks in:

1st: 1.7%
2nd: 2.0%
3rd: 2.4%
4th: 5.7%
9th: 81.3%
10th: 12.2%
11th: 0.4%
12th: >0.0%

As you can see, the Knicks cannot fall below the No. 12 pick in the draft. The Knicks are most likely to stick in the ninth spot, which is where they will be starting. If New York lands the No. 1 overall pick, it will be the second time in franchise history that they did so.

In 1985, the first time an NBA Draft Lottery was held, the Knicks won and selected Patrick Ewing. They have not had the No. 1 pick since. The closest they have come since was landing the No. 4 overall pick in 2015 when they selected Porzingis.

Including 1985, the Knicks have selected in the top 10 nine times. That number would be much higher if it weren’t for some bad trades made in the past. However, those times seem to be behind the Knicks, as they have all of their first round selections for the foreseeable future.

Porzingis is the team’s best building block right now. Frank Ntilikina, the No. 8 pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, has the tools to become a two-way player once he develops. He already has the defensive chops to be a difference-maker, but his offense needs some work.

The Knicks will have a chance to add another young building block to their roster in June. New York’s new brain trust of head coach David Fizdale, Scott Perry and Steve Mills are looking to shape the team in their vision.

Next: Full two-round 2018 NBA Mock Draft

This will be the first player the three select together, so you know they will be looking to hit it out of the park.

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