Minnesota Timberwolves: 3 takeaways from Game 3 vs. Rockets
1. Wolves probably should keep shooting from optimal places
The Wolves are not going to go 15-for-27 from 3 every night. They would have a better chance if they played Bjelica, Dieng and Jones more, but even then, Game 3 was an outlier. The team was unsustainably hot, best exemplified by Wiggins’ 4-of-6 shooting from deep.
The takeaway, however, is not so much the 15 makes as it is the 27 tries.
A league-low 23.8 percent of the Wolves’ shots were triples this year (per Cleaning the Glass). They also made a league-low 8.0 3s per game, but that was more an effect of the low attempt rate than the cause for it. Percentage-wise, they were fine (36.3 percent, No. 19 in the NBA).
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If Minnesota were passing on those solidly efficient shots for better ones, that would be fine. But it only took 33.2 percent of its shots at the rim, which ranked No. 20 in the league, despite making 66.3 percent of its shots from there (fourth-best in NBA).
If you do math, that means that 43.0 percent of Minnesota’s shots came from between the rim and the arc. That was the second-highest chunk of mid-rangers in the league, and while the Wolves can hit them (42.3 percent ranked No. 4), they are still far worse shots than those from further or closer.
Yes, it is more complicated. The Wolves love to get on the offensive glass, get to the line and limit turnovers. That is their identity. Rebounding is underrated. Free throw rate is underrated. Turnover rate is underrated. All of that is true.
And yet, none of that means that the team cannot trade out a few shots from 15-23 feet for ones from just beyond that, which happen to be worth an extra point. It also does not mean that they cannot force the issue inside more, throwing it into Towns or getting Butler and Wiggins the ball with a full head of steam.
They did this in Game 3. Forget the success rate — the Wolves took 41.1 percent of their shots at the rim, and 30.0 percent from deep. Even at their normal success rate, this would have helped their efficiency.
They still out-rebounded the Rockets, still finished with just seven turnovers and shot 22 free throws — just two off their season average. Taking good shots is not antithetical to Minnesota’s play style, but rather enhances it.
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How well the Wolves shoot the rest of the series will determine if they pull a miraculous upset. Where those shots come from will determine if they even have a chance.