2018 NBA Playoffs: Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs preview

Predictions

Most of this series’ possible pivot points alter its length and closeness of score rather than its ultimate outcome. Better coaching by Pop, worse effort from Golden State — it is possible that this thing goes five, six, even seven games, but it’s still hard to see San Antonio coming out on top. We are still talking about Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green vs. LaMarcus Aldridge, Dejounte Murray and Danny Green, after all.

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The one exception to that is Leonard, whose return at close to his normal level would make this thing close to a fair fight.

When predicting series length, however, that is difficult to factor in. It is an extremely unlikely scenario, and moreover, a binary one. If the question were one of whether a certain player will play well or poorly, we could assume a mixture of both and bake that into our prediction. Here, there is no in between. Either the Spurs get an elite Kawhi and are right in the series, or they get something less than that and are massive underdogs. Given that the latter is more likely, I will assume it.

The Warriors are not quite solid enough without Curry to completely dominate this thing from the gate, but once they hit their stride it will be an unchangeable tide. This feels like a series where the Spurs steal one in Oakland and go up 2-1 in Game 3, only to drop three straight decisively.

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Prediction: Warriors in 6