James Harden has struggled since the All-Star Break, leading many Houston Rockets fans to worry about his potential play in the playoffs.
James Harden is the frontrunner for MVP. It’s as simple as that. He has been the best (and most consistent) player of the season, putting up incredible statistics on the team with the league’s best record.
However, Harden’s game (and specifically, his shooting) has fallen off in recent weeks, dating back to the All-Star break. Before the All-Star break, Harden averaged 31.3 points and 9.0 assists per game, hitting 38.4 percent of his 3-pointers and posting a 62.2 true shooting percentage. Since that break, Harden is averaging 28.7 points and 8.1 assists per game, hitting just 28.8 percent of his shots beyond the arc, while posting a 59.7 true shooting percentage.
Of course, those traditional counting stats are still elite, as is his true shooting percentage. It’s the decrease in 3-point shooting that has many Houston Rockets fans concerned. A big aspect of Harden’s season has been his elite shooting on step-back 3-pointers, as he has made that his signature shot.
What were to happen if Harden’s shooting fell off again in the playoffs? Despite being a career 36.3 percent shooter beyond the arc, Harden has shot just 33.5 percent on 3-pointers in the playoffs, including a paltry 27.8 percent in last season’s playoff run.
This slump could either be the result of a long regular season grind, or a simple regression to the mean. After all, Harden has only shot above 38 percent on 3-pointers just once in his career, so it was likely that his 39-40 percent shooting from earlier in the season wasn’t going to hold up.
The Rockets will need Harden at his best come playoff time, which includes him shooting at least 35 percent from beyond the arc in order for him to use one of his best weapons (that step-back 3-pointer) on a consistent basis.
To Harden’s credit, he has continued to hit that shot when it has mattered most in the team’s most recent important games, including his dominant 42-point performance against the Portland Trail Blazers:
Harden will need to be just as good in crunch-time minutes in the playoffs if the Rockets want to have a real shot at not only advancing to the Western Conference Finals, but dethroning the Golden State Warriors.
Harden is one of the most unique players in the league, as he can continue to produce at a fairly consistent rate even when his shot abandons him. This is a result of his craftiness to draw fouls and his ferocious driving ability.
Now that the Rockets have Chris Paul, Harden won’t have to shoulder as large of an offensive burden in the playoffs. Combine that with his reduced playing time in the regular season and it’s very likely that Houston gets a more engaged and fresh Harden later in the playoffs.
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Rockets fans hope that this slump is just Harden’s regression to the mean. If it is, Harden should regain his shooting touch just in time for the playoffs and be the driving force in an extended Houston Rockets playoff run.