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Miami Heat: Justise Winslow becoming a legitimate X-factor

By Simon Smith

LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 16: Justise Winslow
LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 16: Justise Winslow /
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It may have taken some time, but Justise Winslow is starting to demonstrate why the Miami Heat made him their top pick after one season with Duke.

The month of March has been somewhat of a coming-out party for Justise Winslow.

The No. 10 overall pick of the Miami Heat in 2015 has been heavily scrutinized since his one-and-done experience under Mike Krzyzewski at Duke. This is not just due to his high pedigree, but also because of the fact that in this modern-day era of spreading the floor and hitting the perimeter shot, Winslow’s shortcomings in these areas have been far from ideal.

However to his considerable credit, Winslow has slowly been able to flip the narrative over the course of the season, with the results thus far a clear indication of his determination and work ethic.

Entering the 2016-17 season, and following the departure of the now-returned Dwyane Wade, the Heat were anticipating Winslow to emerge after a strong rookie season, and become one of the emerging young stars in the league.

Instead, Winslow would play in just 18 games before succumbing to a season-ending shoulder injury. While he averaged 34.7 minutes per game in these appearances, and showed considerable prowess as a ball0handler and perimeter defender, his shooting splits of .356/.200/.617 were simply dreadful.

Therefore, it came as no surprise that this past summer, in the midst of his continued rehabilitation, that Winslow put in countless hours in preparing for this season by modifying and improving his shaky outside shot. On the eve of the season, Winslow detailed to Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald what he was expecting out of himself this year:

"“If I’m knocking that down then we’ve pretty much got five three-point shooters out there, five guys that can put it on the ground. That second unit could be really special. I don’t want it to be my fault with the spacing and all that. I’m putting in the time and that’s all I know. I’ve been seeing progress and I’ll just continue to work at it because once I know it becomes reliable and consistent it will open up other things for my teammates and myself.I talked to guys on the team and asked them about what kind of workouts they do or what does it take to become a great shooter, and I listened and I learned. Every detail, every little thing I can do to become a better shooter I’m trying to do….For me, I just understand the game and understand the trend the league is going. It’s going smaller, it’s going faster, and more emphasis on the three ball.”"

So while it’s been a slow process this season, both readjusting to the speed of the game and integrating a remodeled shooting technique, the patience of the Heat front office and coaching staff is finally starting to pay off.

Overall, Winslow has averaged 7.5 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 62 games this season. Having shot at an abysmal 20 percent clip from long range last season, Winslow has now shot at a 40.5 percent clip on 1.9 attempts per game. However, one of the most notable achievements has been Winslow’s ability to maintain a high level of efficiency as his shooting volume has increased.

Having averaged 1.4 attempts per game from long range through the end of February, Winslow has been able to convert at a 39.6 percent clip over his 15 games in March despite increasing his attempts to 3.2 per game. Another interesting tale is that in March, Winslow has converted on 15-of-31 shots (48.4 percent) from downtown that are no longer than 24 feet from the rim.

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Couple this with his finishing from within nine feet of the rim improving from a 45.1 percent clip through the end of February to a 54.4 percent clip over his past 15 games, and it’s easy to see why the 22-year-old has been a +90 while on the floor in the month of March. Overall, his numbers for the month have Winslow averaging 11.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.1 steals in 28.0 minutes per game while having an elite net rating of +10.7.

Having missed 14 games earlier this season with a knee injury, it seems apparent that as Winslow has begun to find his feet, his shot and overall game has responded in due course.

While his outside shot seems on the right trajectory, his work on the defensive end has always been Winslow’s calling card. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that Winslow currently leads the Heat in defensive rating at 101.6. Furthermore, the Heat have been 4.3 points per 100 possessions better off defensively when Winslow has been on the floor. With his elite versatility allowing him to switch and defend a variety of positions, Winslow presents as a genuine Swiss Army knife for head coach Erik Spoelstra and his staff.

While he has been terrific defensively all year, the following numbers for March illustrate just how far Winslow’s game has evolved over the course of his third season:

Heat defensive rating in March:

  • Winslow on court: 100.3
  • Winslow off court: 110.0

In other words, the Heat are equivalent to the second-best defensive team in the league with Winslow on the floor, and the 20th-ranked defense when he’s resting.

Next: 2017-18 Week 24 NBA Power Rankings

Currently 41-35, and having all but sealed up a spot in the postseason, the Heat will be looking to use the final six games of the season to not only place as high as they possibly can in the Eastern Conference standings, but to fine-tune in preparation for a serious playoff campaign. In the case of Winslow, the third-year forward will certainly be trying to capitalize on the growth he has shown over the course of this season in order for him to put his best foot forward in the postseason.

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