What are Victor Oladipo’s chances of making an All-NBA Team?
And the winner is…
That leaves Oladipo battling it out with the best player on the third-best team in the league for the last spot. On paper, it’s essentially a tie.
Toronto has a much better record, which is easily the strongest point for DeRozan’s case. The Pacers are only a dozen games over .500, but Vic has arguably done as much for his team as any player in the league.
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The Pacers outscore teams by 6.5 points per 100 possessions when Oladipo is on the court (the highest on the team) and are getting whipped by 7.2 points per 100 when he’s off (easily the lowest). By comparison, the same stat says the Raptors actually perform better when DeRozan is off the court than when he’s playing. Take that for what it’s worth, considering Toronto’s elite bench.
Comparing traditional counting stats is a wash, although Oladipo does lead the league in steals and his 0.7 blocks per game are very good for a guard. DeRozan’s defense has never been his calling card, although he plays heavy minutes and Toronto has the fourth-most efficient defense in the league. Oladipo has a slight edge in both true shooting percentage and usage rate.
At the end of the day, DeRozan will get the spot for two reasons: First, his team is markedly better and voters will feel funny filling out their ballots without a Raptor anywhere on it (although naming Dwane Casey Coach of the Year would partially make up for it).
Second, and perhaps more importantly, the NBA is a narrative-driven league. Oladipo and the Pacers have been a great story, but All-NBA ties tend to go to the players who have been there before, and Dipo is the new kid on the block. On the other hand, everyone agrees that this has not only been DeRozan’s best year, but one in which he has changed his game for the betterment of the team. It just feels like it’s his year to get rewarded somehow.
(Also, don’t discount his coming out publicly and courageously talking about his battles with depression. It shouldn’t factor into any of this, but people noticed it, and it will be in the back of their minds during the voting.)
Next: 2017-18 Week 24 NBA Power Rankings
Victor Oladipo has been amazing all year, and is probably finishing up the greatest year any Pacer has ever had in the NBA. That’ll have to be enough to keep him satisfied in the offseason. DeMar takes the last spot.