Stephen Curry’s 2016 MCL injury showed how vulnerable even an all-time team can be. The Golden State Warriors signed Kevin Durant to fix that vulnerability, and now he has a chance to prove that he can.
Barring something unforeseen, Stephen Curry will play again for the Golden State Warriors this season. He could return at the beginning of the playoffs, midway through Round 1, or at the beginning of Round 2.
Curry’s return might not come until midway through Round 2 against (most likely) the Portland Trail Blazers, just as it did after his first MCL sprain in 2016. You know, the one that led to two 3-1 comebacks, to Klay Thompson‘s Game 6, to LeBron James‘ block and Kyrie Irving‘s shot and to Kevin Durant coming to the Warriors.
That was a Grade 1 MCL sprain, and Curry was set to be re-evaluated in two weeks. He ended up missing 15 days. This current sprain — which, just like his first sprain, occurred in his first game back from an ankle injury — is a Grade 2, though Curry is set to be re-evaluated in three weeks rather than two.
The 50 percent increase in timetable is due to a more severe sprain, but it is likely also about a change in approach. Curry was a shell of himself upon returning last time, and with the more recent sprain occurring a month and a day earlier — March 23, instead of April 24 — the immediate stakes are considerably lower.
Durant had a Grade 2 MCL sprain himself last year, which occurred on Feb. 28. Still, he was held out until the third-to-last game of the regular season. The Warriors will give Curry as much time to heal as they can get away with.
In theory, that should be the entire postseason.
“We want to get better”
The Warriors had been eyeing Durant for years leading up to the summer of 2016. No matter what happened in the playoffs that preceded free agency, they were going to try and sign one of the greatest players to ever legitimately test the open market.
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Still, the way in which those 2016 playoffs concluded amped up the intensity of their pursuit. After 67 wins, a championship, and 73 more wins, the Warriors were being compared to the Michael Jordan Bulls, Showtime Lakers and 60s Celtics. There was reason to believe, both internally and externally, that any change would be bad change, even if said change took form in the addition of Durant.
Losing Game 7 of the Finals exposed that notion as absurd. As dominant as the Warriors were, they were still just one Curry injury away from losing the title. This is nothing unique. Had Jordan, Magic Johnson or Bill Russell suffered a major injury during any of their title runs, their teams would have similarly fallen from their unreachable pedestal.
That doesn’t mean the Warriors were obligated to accept this reality. General manager Bob Myers had built a roster flexible enough to fit a max player in 2016. Steve Kerr had implemented a system that would seamlessly incorporate a Durant. Curry, Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala had always been more committed to winning than personal numbers or spotlight.
While a historically dominant team adding a historically dominant player was unprecedented, it was not overkill. Favorites do not always win, and every dynasty has a downfall. The Warriors wanted to change the first reality, and put off the second.
Many saw last year’s title run as Durant’s “that’s why they brought me here” declaration. After losing in seven to Cleveland in 2016, Golden State won the 2017 title in five. Durant scored 35.2 points on 69.8 percent true shooting. He was seen as the difference, and won Finals MVP honors unanimously.
In reality, last year proved nothing. All of the adversity that hit the 2016 team was absent in 2017. Curry was healthy. Green stayed out of trouble. There was no terrifying opponent, as the 2016 Oklahoma City Thunder were. Sure, Durant made things a lot easier, but last year’s Warriors would have almost certainly cruised to a title with Harrison Barnes still starting at small forward.
No, last year was not why the Warriors signed Durant. This year is.
Solving the Curry conundrum
There is a trend that I and others have written about extensively this season: The Warriors aren’t that good without Curry.
They have a net rating of +2.5 with Curry off the floor. That isn’t just a result of funky lineups when he sits; he’s missed 22 games altogether. In those contests, they are have a 13-10 record. Contrast that to the 41-10 record when Curry plays, and the +14.4 net rating when he is on the floor.
Durant was supposed to correct this. It is why his signing was so ingenious, and also why it angered so many. The Warriors were, we thought, injury-proof.
Curry’s on/off numbers fly in the face of that notion, and there are two possibilities as to why. The first is that we were wrong about Curry’s impact. As great as we thought he was during his two MVP years, maybe he was significantly better than that. With him, the Warriors were among the greatest teams of all-time. Replace him with another superstar, and they aren’t even title contenders.
The second possibility is that the regular season is simply different from the playoffs. Durant might not be as seamless a fit into Kerr’s system through 82 games, but against the best defenses at the highest level, when things like size, athleticism and two-way play matter more, he’s still better than anyone not named LeBron James.
The Warriors certainly hope it’s that latter explanation.
Of course, assuming Curry returns, we won’t get a clear read on Durant’s absolute value. Maybe Curry’s 30 percent decrease in physical ability (for the sake of discussion) was the difference between the 2016 Warriors coasting to a title and losing to Cleveland, but that 70 percent version of Curry was still pretty damn good.
He was arguably better than Durant, whom he significantly outplayed in Games 5, 6 and 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Put any version of Curry out there, and the +2.5 net rating and 13-10 record become rather meaningless as indicators.
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However, this year’s path will be more treacherous than that of 2016. The Blazers are a significantly better team than they were two years ago, and even that team had the lead for the majority of their Round 2 loss to the Warriors. With an improved defense, a major center upgrade in Jusuf Nurkic, an improved bench and a peaking Damian Lillard, they are a problem.
Then there’s Houston. Chris Paul was paired with James Harden to challenge the Warriors backcourt in a way it never had been by forcing Curry to guard a superstar. Golden State can counter by hiding Curry on Trevor Ariza, Luc Mbah a Moute, P.J. Tucker or Ryan Anderson, but the Rockets have worked all season at using these guys as screeners and forcing point guards to switch onto Harden and Paul. The strategy is clearly molded after the 2016 Cavs, who manipulated Curry into guarding James and Irving as much as possible.
In that series, Cleveland wore down a hobbled Curry enough for James’ greatness to make the difference. That, in theory, is not supposed to work anymore — not with Durant present.
When these Warriors are healthy, they look unfair. Unbeatable. Boringly dominant. Bad for basketball. While that is a tired take, it does accurately assess their supremacy. Golden State’s ability to eviscerate the world when things go its way is nice, but that is not what it was built for.
It was built to challenge the reality that favorites had to be vulnerable. It was built for the exact circumstances that it now faces. That is why this spring matters more than however many titles this group goes on to win.
Next: 2017-18 Week 24 NBA Power Rankings
This spring, we will learn if the greatest team ever assembled is a success.