Milwaukee Bucks: Looking beyond Brandon Jennings’ surface success
By Max Carlin
A quick glance at his production would indicate Brandon Jennings has been everything the Milwaukee Bucks could’ve hoped for, but a deeper look should temper optimism.
Backup point guard should have been a strength for the Milwaukee Bucks this year. Then both Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova went down for extended periods of time with significant injuries.
Not to fret though, Bucks fans. Unlike the wing Milwaukee has been searching for all season, point guard depth is plentiful. The Bucks, therefore, had no trouble finding a veteran floor general to come in and orchestrate the second unit in Brandon Jennings.
Jennings has been productive, posting averages of 6.9 points, 4.3 assists and 2.4 rebounds per game on .459-.350-1.000 shooting splits — good for a true shooting percentage of 59.9 percent.
On the surface, it appears as if Jennings has been incredible, exactly what the doctor ordered for a reeling Bucks backcourt. However, the underlying truth is not quite so rosy, nor is the Bucks’ outlook if they continue to rely on Jennings.
Jennings has been highly efficient so far, but his shot profile is beyond concerning — it essentially guarantees major regression.
Jennings isn’t getting to the rim at all, as in he’s taken all of five shots there in his second stint with the Bucks. Meanwhile, he is relying heavily on mid-range shots and 3-pointers.
Taking lots of 3s is better than not taking lots of 3s, but Jennings is shooting just 35 percent from distance, comfortably below the league average of 36.3 percent. Far more concerning is Jennings’ dependence on the mid-range, where he’s shooting a blistering 58.3 percent.
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Mid-rangers represent nearly a third of Jennings’ shots, and unless he’s suddenly become the greatest mid-range shooter of all time, he’s due for some serious regression. Jennings has historically been an abysmal mid-range shooter, so make that some very serious regression.
What’s most concerning, though, is that the Bucks have been getting rocked with Jennings on-court despite his unsustainable offensive excellence, posting an abysmal -13.6 net rating.
That ineffectiveness can be largely attributed to defense, as the Bucks have generated a 118.4 defensive rating with Jennings on-court; the Phoenix Suns have the NBA’s worst defensive rating on the season at 110.8.
Jennings struggles in just about every aspect of defense. On-ball, he’s oddly slow and shockingly inattentive, routinely allowing dribble penetration with little resistance. His preferred tactic is to let his man blow by him then take a half-hearted swipe at the ball.
He navigates screens exceedingly poorly both on- and off-ball, forcing teammates to scramble and compromising the whole defense. And it’s not as if the Bucks can counter Jennings’ inability to maneuver through screens by switching, as is in vogue, because he checks in at a slight 6’1”, offering no defensive versatility whatsoever. He’s a weak link, and the NBA punishes weak links without mercy.
Jennings has redeeming qualities. As a passer, for example, he is willing, which serves as a nice change of pace from Eric Bledsoe, who tends to suffer from tunnel vision. High assist totals and relatively low turnover numbers have long been a hallmark of his game. However, competent playmaking does not outweigh his crippling weaknesses.
Jennings will be eligible to occupy a spot on the playoff roster. The Bucks, however, would be unwise to reserve one for him. Jennings is helping now (to a degree), but that won’t last. His deficiencies are too pronounced, his weaknesses too exploitable.
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Instead, the Bucks desperately need Brogdon and Dellavedova back. Neither is particularly dynamic, but compared to Jennings, they’re difference-makers. Both are traveling with the team again, but with the playoffs less than three weeks away, the Bucks should be getting anxious, because counting on Brandon Jennings in the playoffs is not an option.